Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though a deal by Trump’s 8 pm ET deadline remains a “longshot”, Axios writes.

This is the latest in the non-stop series of ‘leaks’ on the US/Israel-Iran war and it cites an Israeli official a “two other sources” with knowledge of talks. It comes after the Tehran Times deleted a post saying that the diplomatic track had been cut off and replaced it with a message saying that talks were still possible.

A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from “can we get there?” to “can we get there by 8 o’clock tonight?”

Trump himself hinted he could extend the deadline when speaking with Fox earlier today. That would be the fourth extension from him.

“The key challenges at the moment are meeting Iran’s demand for a strong guarantee that the U.S. and Israel won’t just resume the war after a pause,” Axios writes. That’s been a consistent talking point from Iran and the main resistance to any type of ceasefire to negotiate. If the straight reopens, it would allow for the unblocking of oil and they would lose much of the leverage they’ve built up.

As the White House press secretary said, only Trump knows “where things stand and what he will do”.

Or maybe not just Trump:

Marco Rubio did earlier drop a soft hint about an announcement later today and JD Vance said the US had accomplished almost all of its war goals and “very shortly the war is going to conclude.”

The S&P 500 has halved today’s decline and is down 30 points to 6581. WTI crude oil remains 2.7% higher at $115.48 but is down from the peak of $117.63.

You can’t help but shake the feeling that if a deal is coming, someone will be front-running the trade on inside information.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.