IBM makes $11 billion move nobody saw coming

IBMshares rose 0.5% on Dec. 8, adding to its 41% year-to-date stock gain, after the consulting provider announced its plans to acquire the real-time data streaming platform Confluent

More importantly, though, Confluent’s stock price soared 29% following the news, not its highest price at $29.9, but a solid gain compared to September, when it recorded its lowest stock price at $15.64. 

IBM announced the agreement on Monday, Dec. 8, sharing that it will acquire all the issued and outstanding common shares of Confluent for $31 per share, valuing the enterprise at $11 billion.

The deal underscores the importance of data streaming in the rapidly expanding generative AI sector, enabling IBM to deliver a purpose-built, innovative AI data platform for its customers.

IBM’s stock is up 41% year to date.

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Data streaming platform Confluent supports IBM hybrid cloud, AI strategy

Confluent, founded by the original creators of Apache Kafka, provides companies with tools that enable them to move and process data in real time across internal systems, cloud environments, and applications.

It acts like a company’s central nervous system, from which data flows, allowing personnel to react quickly and intelligently based on the information.

IBM said in its press release that this acquisition is consistent with its hybrid cloud and AI strategy. As data growth doubles by 2028, IBM will be able to complement its existing Data and Automation portfolio and further help organizations that “turn to IBM to simplify, automate and integrate disparate systems.”

“Confluent’s total addressable market (TAM) has doubled from $50 billion to $100 billion in 2025,” IBM added, with several big-name partners like Microsoft, Google Cloud, and Amazon Web Services.

IBM’s acquisition of Confluent: implications

IBM’s acquisition of Confluent, which combines IBM’s AI infrastructure software and Automation offerings with Confluent’s real-time data and event streaming capabilities, will position both companies favorably to capture this growth.

IBM expects the deal to add to its adjusted EBITDA “within the first full year and free cash flow in year two, post close.” The deal builds on IBM’s past acquisitions, following last year’s $6.4 billion takeover of HashiCorp, a cloud software provider.

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Analysts at Stephens downgraded Confluent to equal weight from overweight. They increased its price target to $31 from $29, following the announcement of the acquisition, and expect this to grow into an industry-wide trend. 

The deal underlines the importance of real-time streaming workloads for AI and legacy database migration, the analysts noted, adding that it could “portend a larger trend of best-in-class data technologies combining with firms that have larger distribution and complementary products.”

Stephens, as reported by TheFly, cited examples of Snowflake or Databricks acquiring Domo (cloud-based business intelligence), or a hyperscaler buying MongoDB (document-oriented database) in the future, if the need for real-time data streaming continues to grow.

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