• US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate
• US February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expected
• Canada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expected
• Trump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a deal
• Iran drafts protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz traffic
• Fed’s Williams: Monetary policy is well-positioned to manage risks
• Baker Hughes total rig count 548 versus 543 previously
• Pres Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi
• Fed’s Logan: I wasn’t convinced inflation was easing enough even before the war started
• Tesla Q1 deliveries 358K vs 372K expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $11.25 to $111.38
• Gold down $84 to $4672
• S&P 500 up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 4.30%
• USD leads, GBP lags

The key to understanding today’s price action is to look further out the oil curve. There was a massive bid in front month and second month oil futures but it cooled from there and December WTI was up just 38-cents to $71.77.

After an initial rout, the stock market took solace in that and it led to buying the dip. Yes, Trump may have extended the timeline for peace but the market senses an inevitable TACO in an unpopular war. Ultimate, the S&P 500 eeked out a small again after falling 100 points in the pre-market. The gains were generally broadly dispersed and may have been helped by short covering ahead of a long weekend (markets are closed Friday).

The FX market tended to side with oil as the US dollar strengthened but it wasn’t a runaway bid. The fear is growing that emerging markets will soon start to face genuine shortages that lead to real economic problems.

The first hints of the turn in the market came in fixed income as bonds gained a bid. Yields ultimately finished lower and that could reflect a flight to safety or an expectation that the Fed won’t have to hike rates.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.