• Japan intervened repeatedly in forex markets during May holidays, source says
• UAE says it is responding again to a missile threat
• Goldman says Trump tariff ruling near-term impact limited as appeal looms
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8502 (vs. estimate at 6.8138)
• Trump gives EU until July 4 to implement Turnberry deal or face tariff hike
• Japan services PMI hits 11-month low in April. War costs bite, input costs 42-month high
• Morgan Stanley sees gold at $5,200 (Central bank buys, Fed cuts), fear trade is now dead
• Paul Tudor Jones says AI bull market has one to two years left to run
• Japan wage growth streak hits three months, putting June BOJ move in focus
• Deutsche Bank flags inconsistent market pricing as Iran conflict drags on
• Iran and Israel report separately that hostility flare up has ended at present
• US trade court strikes down Trump’s 10% global tariffs in 2-1 ruling
• US CENTCOM says US destroyers repelled Iranian attack in Strait of Hormuz
• US strikes Bandar Abbas and Qeshm as Gulf tensions surge past ceasefire
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 7 MayFed officials not anxious to cut/Iran tensions up
• Reports filtering in that Iran launched missiles at US Navy ships

Summary:

• The US and Iran exchanged fire in the most serious test of their month-long ceasefire, with Iranian forces attacking three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz using missiles, drones and small boats, and the US responding with strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, per Centcom
• A US official described the strikes as not an act of war and said the ceasefire remained in effect; Trump later told ABC the strikes were a “light blow” and a “love tap” and confirmed ceasefire negotiations with Iran are continuing, per ABC News
• Trump’s schedule flagged remarks at noon Friday, 1600 GMT, with no subject given, per the White House
• Trump also referenced “Project Freedom”, saying Pakistan had asked the US not to pursue the initiative during ongoing Iran negotiations
• Japan’s real wages rose 1.0% in March for a third consecutive monthly gain; total cash earnings rose 2.7%, missing the 3.2% consensus and prior reading, per government data
• Japan’s services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4, an 11-month low, with Middle East war costs driving input inflation to a 42-month high and business confidence to its lowest since the pandemic
• Trump has given the EU until July 4 to implement the Turnberry trade deal or face higher tariffs, with car tariff hikes temporarily on hold after a Trump call with European Commission President von der Leyen, per the Financial Times
• The US Court of International Trade struck down Trump’s 10% global tariffs 2-1, ruling they were not justified under a 1970s trade law; Goldman Sachs expects an appeal before May 12 and a higher court stay leaving the duties intact until their July 24 expiry,
• South Korea’s current-account surplus surged to a record $37.3 billion in March, its 35th consecutive monthly surplus, driven by all-time high exports of $94.3 billion, with semiconductor shipments rising nearly 150%
• Reform UK swept the UK local elections, gaining over 90 seats while Labour lost more than 70 and the Conservatives shed over 20

It was, by any measure, a day that struggled to pick a lane. Markets woke to the news that the United States and Iran had exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the most serious test yet of their fragile month-long ceasefire. Iranian forces fired missiles, drones and small boats at three US Navy destroyers transiting the strait. The US responded with strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. A US official then deployed what can only be described as the geopolitical equivalent of a straight face, insisting the exchanges did not constitute an act of war and that the ceasefire remained in effect. Trump, never one to undersell a moment, later described the strikes as a “love tap.”

Centcom’s framing was more clinical but no less revealing. The command described its actions as self-defence strikes against Iranian military facilities, targeting missile and drone launch sites, command and control infrastructure, and surveillance nodes. The breadth of that target set suggested something more purposeful than a tap, light or otherwise. Trump subsequently told ABC that ceasefire negotiations with Iran are continuing, and that Pakistan has asked Washington not to pursue something called “Project Freedom” while those talks are ongoing, a detail that raises rather more questions than it answers. The president is scheduled to deliver remarks at noon Friday, 1600 GMT, on a subject the White House did not see fit to disclose in advance.

Away from the Gulf, Japan provided two data points that told a coherent if uncomfortable story. Real wages rose 1.0% in March for a third straight month, which is exactly what the Bank of Japan needed to see ahead of its June rate decision. The same war that rattled the Strait of Hormuz was meanwhile making itself felt in Japan’s services sector, where the April PMI slipped to an 11-month low of 51.0, input costs hit a 42-month high driven explicitly by Middle East fuel prices, and business confidence sank to its lowest since the pandemic. The BOJ wants to hike. The data is giving it permission and a warning at the same time.

On trade, the day offered something for everyone and certainty for no one. A US court struck down Trump’s 10% global tariffs in a 2-1 ruling, finding them unjustified under a 1970s trade law. Goldman Sachs promptly told clients not to get too excited, expecting an appeal before May 12 and a higher court stay that would keep the duties alive until their scheduled July 24 expiry, with replacement tariffs likely waiting in the wings regardless. Meanwhile Trump gave the EU until July 4 to implement the Turnberry trade deal or face higher tariffs, offering a temporary reprieve on car duties after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The message to Brussels: the clock is running.

In what passed for good news on Friday, South Korea reported a record current-account surplus of $37.3 billion in March, its 35th consecutive monthly surplus, with semiconductor exports rising nearly 150% and total goods exports hitting an all-time high of $94.3 billion. Chip demand, it turns out, is indifferent to geopolitical mood music.

Reform UK had a night to remember in the UK local elections, gaining more than 90 seats as Labour shed over 70 and the Conservatives lost more than 20. The result will accelerate the conversation about Keir Starmer’s position and, as Commerzbank noted earlier in the week, may yet add sterling to the list of things the market needs to worry about.

A busy Friday. The love tap heard around the Strait of Hormuz will set the tone for the weekend.

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Major FX traded limited ranges. Regional equities remained under pressure. Crude tracked in a limited range also, rising early but gibving it back. Reuters cited yen intervention over six days, April 30 – May 6, of US$67bn. Not a typo.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.