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Summary:

• Oil prices firmed mildly after US and Iranian forces exchanged tit-for-tat attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend
• Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said Tehran will declare a restricted zone near Hormuz and announce a new Oman-agreed shipping route in the coming days and weeks
• OPEC held its oil output quotas flat for October
• Gold dropped to retest the USD 4,400/oz level after last week’s stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which supports the case for a Fed rate hike this month
• Japanese and South Korean stocks rose on chip demand optimism, though the stated rationale for Japan’s gains sits uneasily against Friday’s actual Wall Street losses outside the semiconductor sector
• Hong Kong shares fell, with the Hang Seng down more than 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down around 1.1%
• Major FX markets were quiet, with only minor moves across the majors
• Monday’s US Labor Day holiday will see CME Globex open as normal on Sunday evening, before an early halt around midday and a reopening that evening

Oil prices were mildly firmer on Monday after US and Iranian forces conducted tit-for-tat attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, keeping a geopolitical risk premium in the market. There were weekend reports that Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said Tehran will declare a restricted zone near the strait and announce a new shipping route agreed with Oman in the coming days and weeks. In other oil news, OPEC held its output quotas flat for October, keeping the group on its existing roadmap through the rest of the year.

Gold dropped towards the USD 4,400 an ounce level, pressured by Friday’s NFP report of stronger-than-expected US jobs data, strengthening the argument for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise rates next week.

Japanese and South Korean shares rose, driven by chipmakers on optimism around AI investment demand, with the Kospi and Nikkei both advancing and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading gains in Seoul. The circulating narrative for Japan’s rally, that calmer bond markets and a steadier yen had eased volatility and encouraged a shift to risk-on positioning, is worth treating with some caution given that Wall Street actually fell on Friday on rising Fed rate hike odds, with only the semiconductor sector bucking that broader decline.

Hong Kong stocks moved the other way, with the Hang Seng Index down more than 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index off around 1.1%. Major foreign exchange markets were quiet, with only minor moves seen across the majors.

Traders should note Monday is a US holiday. CME Globex opened as normal at its regular time on Sunday evening, but the Monday session will see an early halt around midday before markets reopen that evening for Tuesday’s trade date.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.