• FX market still has not grasped full impact of energy shock – Goldman Sachs
• EURUSD keeps the bearish bias intact amid the US-Iran war; Focus stays on negotiations
• European stocks keep the calm today but set to cap one of the worst months in recent years
• Eurozone headline inflation picks up in March as energy prices surge on Middle East war
• ECB’s Muller: Current baseline projection could be already too optimistic
• The Nasdaq bounces as Trump is reportedly open to end the war without Hormuz condition
• Germany March unemployment change 0k vs 2k expected
• Three Chinese ships confirmed to have passed through Strait of Hormuz
• Gold consolidates awaiting potential US-Iran deal; Trump’s next move crucial
• France March preliminary CPI +1.7% vs +1.6% y/y expected
• What are the main events for today?
• German import prices move up slightly in February, just before the US-Iran war impact
• UK March Nationwide house prices +0.9% vs -0.1% m/m expected
• Germany February retail sales -0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• UK Q4 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q prelim
• FX option expiries for 31 March 10am New York cut
• Risk sentiment on the up but is it another false dawn?

The highlight of the session was the Eurozone inflation data for March. The data missed estimates but still showed an annual increase to 2.5% vs 1.9% prior due to elevated energy prices. Core inflation hasn’t been impacted yet as the annual rate fell to 2.3% vs 2.4% prior. This clearly shows that inflation conditions were pretty much perfect before the war started.

The main story today though has been the WSJ report released in the APAC session saying that Trump would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. This has led to some cautious optimism in the markets as stocks rebounded, oil prices eased and the US dollar pulled back.

Trump basically confirmed the report just a few moments ago as he said in a Truth Social post that countries affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure should get the oil themselves as the US won’t be there to help anymore.

It feels like a deal is really coming at this point and we could see the war ending before the April 6 deadline, so keep a close eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.