• Gold consolidates around the 4,000 level as traders await the US NFP and CPI reports
• ECB’s Wunsch: We might need another rate hike but not necessarily in July
• Italy inflation only marginally lower in June as services inflation cool a little
• BOJ policymaker Sato says short-term volatile moves in exchange rate are undesirable
• ECB policymaker Nagel says it’s too early to make a call on rate hikes
• German states see further drop in inflation pressures in June
• German unemployment falls unexpectedly in June, labour market trend remains muted
• ECB policymaker Sleijpen says energy price retreat will have an impact on inflation
• French preliminary data shows inflation cooling in June
• ECB policymaker Lane warns that oil price curve sees elevated levels in years ahead
• Germany retail sales jump in May as fuel discounts boost petrol station sales
• German import prices climb further in May amid impact from Middle East conflict
• UK economy confirmed to have grown by 0.6% to start the year
• FX option expiries for 30 June 10am New York cut
• ECB may see a case for July move on a negative June inflation surprise – report
• Gold Analysis Today: Gold Futures Test 3,989-3,995 Decision Zone

It’s been a pretty calm session with no major market moves. The highlight of the session was the inflation data from France, Germany and Italy.

We got a Reuters report early in the morning citing sources saying that recent inflation developments have taken pressure off the ECB for a rate hike in July, although a case could be made if the June numbers were “nasty”.

The Eurozone CPI report comes out tomorrow but given that today’s inflation data from France, Germany and Italy showed further easing, we shouldn’t see upside surprises in tomorrow’s data and an ECB rate hike in July looks very unlikely.

ECB policymakers Lane, Sleijpen, Nagel and Wunsch acknowledged that the surprising selloff in oil prices will have a positive impact on inflation and refrained from giving a timeline for the next rate hike. All in all, their remarks point toward a pause in July and a rate hike in September if needed. This way they can make a better decision with more data collected over the summer.

In the American session, we get the US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence data. Job Openings are expected at 7.295M vs 7.618M prior. Openings have normalised to pre-covid levels and more recently started to increase.

Analysts say that some of the recent boost in openings and hiring might have been caused by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In any case, the US labour market has been improving considerably since 2025 and it’s not a source of concern for the Fed anymore as the focus shifted to inflation.

The US Consumer Confidence is expected to improve to 94.4 vs 93.1 prior given the end of the US-Iran war and the easing in energy prices.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.