• India’s inflation rate increases to 3.2% in February, slightly above consensus
• India reportedly sees first oil vessel reach its port since the US-Iran conflict started
• US futures step with caution as Middle East conflict drags on
• The S&P 500 bias turns bearish again as traders don’t buy Trump’s jawboning anymore
• GBPUSD rejects a major trendline as US dollar bids return amid renewed risk aversion
• IEA chief confirms release of 400 million barrels in strategic in oil reserves
• Gold fails to sustain the breakout as prospects for a quick end to the war fade
• What are the main events for today?
• Middle East energy disruption shifts EUR/USD risks to the downside – Danske
• FX option expiries for 12 March 10am New York cut
• Oil prices continue to be the tail that is wagging the dog
• China has reportedly called for immediate ban on fuel exports for March

It’s been an unusually calm session with very limited news releases and no economic data. The IEA chief confirmed the release of 400 million barrels in strategic oil reserves, which is the largest ever. The hope is that oil prices stabilise until the US reaches all its goals, but if if doesn’t work, the only option will be to stop the conflict.

The markets are currently in a defensive mood as Trump’s jawboning strategy isn’t working anymore. In fact, the markets largely ignored Trump yesterday when he told Axios that there’s practically nothing left to target in Iran and that the war will end soon. On Monday, those same words triggered a strong relief rally.

In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 213K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1850K vs 1868K prior.

As I’ve been repeating since the start of the war, the data doesn’t matter now because it’s old news at this point. With Jobless Claims it might be different because they are the timeliest data on the labour market but unless we get big deviations like Initial Claims above 260K or Continuing Claims above 1900K, it’s unlikely to be market-moving.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.