Headlines:

• Iran president reaffirms that ceasefire agreement has been violated
• Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran deal fails, vows Hormuz must stay open (bluster?)
• Another case of he said, she said for markets?
• Dollar holds steadier today as fragile US-Iran truce keeps traders guessing
• Gold remains supported amid the US-Iran ceasefire as focus turns to negotiations
• Japan reportedly considering releasing about 20 days of additional oil reserves
• How have interest rate expectations changed after the ceasefire announcement?
• BoJ Governor Ueda reiterates financial conditions remain accommodative
• Germany February industrial production -0.3% vs +0.7% m/m expected
• Japan consumer sentiment plunges in March as US-Iran conflict weighs

Markets:

• WTI crude up 4.5% to $98.56
• DAX down 1.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US dollar mixed, a touch lower on the day
• 10-year Treasury yields down 0.6 bps to 4.285%
• Gold up 0.8% to $4,755, Silver up 0.5% to $74.50

As we continue to count down to negotiations tomorrow, Middle East tensions are still permeating and keeping markets on edge today.

The US camp is eyeing some positive news from talks tomorrow but Iran is continuing to reaffirm that negotiations are not quite in good faith as the ceasefire agreement has already been violated. Only time will tell if we will see any positive developments ahead of the weekend now.

US president Trump did come out to warn about renewed strikes against Iran if there is no deal. However, markets are still leaning more towards the optimistic side for now. That as the risk pullback today is not all too significant compared to the gains yesterday.

Oil prices are sitting higher though as there is no change to the status quo on the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude is up 4.5% to $98.56 with the highs on the session failing to meet the $100 mark.

Meanwhile, equities are lower but it’s just a minor drop for now as compared to the surging gains in the day before. Major indices in Europe are down around 0.4% to 0.7% mostly while the DAX is down 1.1% on the day. In pre-market, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% as investors keep a little nervous ahead of the open later.

Besides that, there wasn’t too much action with major currencies keeping little changed overall. The dollar is a touch lower at the balance but is keeping much steadier after the declines yesterday. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1690 while USD/JPY is up 0.2% to 158.85 on the day. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is up 0.2% to 1.3425 and AUD/USD flat at 0.7045 currently.

That comes as the bond market also sees light changes in waiting on further US-Iran developments. 10-year yields in the US are only down 0.6 bps to 4.285% on the day.

As for precious metals, they are holding up with gold seeing gains of 0.8% to $4,755 and silver up 0.5% to $74.50. The upside momentum remains tepid though after a late drop in overnight trading for both.

It’s still all about headline risks as we look towards negotiations tomorrow before the weekend comes along.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.