You filed your taxes, triple-checked the numbers, and hit submit. Now you are watching your bank account like a hawk, waiting for that refund to land. But this year, the wait might test your patience more than usual.

The IRS is heading into the heart of tax season with the smallest workforce it has had in years. The agency shed roughly 28,000 employees over the course of 2025, a staggering drop that has gutted customer service lines, slowed onboarding for seasonal hires, and created a backlog of unresolved returns from prior years that still has not been cleared.

At the same time, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced over 100 changes to the tax code, many of them retroactive, making this season one of the most complicated in recent memory. The combination of fewer workers and more complex returns has watchdogs, tax professionals, and taxpayers asking the same question.

“Will your refund actually show up on time?”

The IRS lost more than a quarter of its staff in a single year.

The IRS began 2025 with approximately 102,000 employees. By December, the headcount had dropped to about 74,000, a 27% reduction, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate’s 2025 Annual Report to Congress.

The cuts hit nearly every division of the agency, and many of the departing employees were experienced workers whose institutional knowledge cannot be easily replaced.

The losses were especially severe in departments that directly serve you as a taxpayer. The Taxpayer Services division, which handles phone calls, correspondence, and in-person assistance, lost 21% of its workforce.

The Small Business/Self-Employed division, responsible for helping small business owners and freelancers navigate their obligations, saw a reduction of more than 37%.

The Information Technology department, which maintains the systems that actually process your return, was cut by 25%, and the departments that handle processing original and amended returns, catching errors, and resolving fraud cases lost 17% of their staff, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate’s Fiscal Year 2026 Objectives Report to Congress.

Seasonal hiring fell far behind schedule

The IRS typically brings on thousands of temporary workers each year to handle the crush of tax season. This year, that pipeline broke down. The late 2025 government shutdown and changes to federal hiring processes delayed onboarding across the board.

As of December 2025, the division responsible for processing original and amended returns had onboarded just 2% of the seasonal employees it planned to hire, according to the Yahoo Personal Finance report citing the Taxpayer Advocate’s findings.

Even when new hires do come through the door, onboarding takes up to 80 days, meaning many of those workers will not be fully trained before the April 15 filing deadline passes.

Phone support is especially thin

The department that assists taxpayers by phone and in person was only able to bring on 66% of the staff it needed for this tax season. The employees who did get hired received modified training due to time constraints. 

Instead of resolving your issues directly, many of these new representatives are limited to screening calls, answering basic questions, and routing you to another department. If your return gets flagged or you have a question about the new tax law, getting a knowledgeable person on the line could take significantly longer than in past years.

New tax law changes are making returns harder to process

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act made over 100 changes to the tax code, effective retroactively to January 1, 2025.

While many of these provisions benefit taxpayers, including new above-the-line deductions for tips, overtime pay, and auto loan interest, as well as a $6,000 senior deduction for retirees, they also introduce layers of complexity that the IRS must navigate with fewer people.

National Taxpayer Advocate Erin M. Collins put it directly in her 2025 Annual Report to Congress: the OBBBA’s deductions and benefits are subject to complex eligibility rules, income thresholds, and phase-outs that many taxpayers will struggle to understand, and the IRS will find difficult to administer accurately during filing season.

What does that mean for you in practice?

If you qualify for one of the new deductions but apply it incorrectly, your return could get flagged for review. That review process takes longer when there are fewer employees to handle it. 

If you call the IRS for guidance on whether you qualify for the tip or overtime deduction, the person who answers may not have the training to give you a clear answer.

If you filed a Schedule 1-A to claim one of the OBBBA deductions, you are one of nearly 15 million filers who submitted that form, according to IRS filing season data, adding another layer of processing demand on a shrinking workforce.

A 2-million-return backlog is still lingering from last year

Even before this tax season started, the IRS was already behind. A backlog of roughly 2 million returns from previous filing years remained unresolved heading into 2026. While the agency kept thousands of employees working through the October and November 2025 government shutdown, progress on that backlog was minimal.

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That means the same reduced workforce now juggling 164 million new returns also has to clear old inventory. If your return from a prior year is stuck in that pile, you could be waiting even longer for a resolution.

In 2025, about 3.6 million taxpayers received their refunds beyond the IRS’s normal processing window, with e-filers waiting an average of seven weeks and paper filers waiting 14 weeks, the Taxpayer Advocate’s report found.

Paper returns face the steepest delays

The IRS has been pushing to convert paper returns to electronic format, but the automated systems needed to make that conversion happen have not been fully completed due to workforce losses.

If you file on paper, your return will take longer to enter the system and be processed. The IRS itself has said electronic filing with direct deposit is the fastest way to get your money, and in 2026, that gap between e-filers and paper filers is likely to be even wider.

Early filing season numbers show a mixed picture

The IRS expects approximately 164 million individual tax returns to be filed for the 2025 tax year, according to its 2026 filing season announcement. Early data paints an interesting, if uneven, picture of how the season is playing out so far.

Key early-season stats

• As of late February 2026, the IRS had received about 2.6% fewer returns than in the same period in 2025 and processed about 3.1% fewer returns, according to Tax Notes.
• The average refund as of late February was $3,742, up 10.6% from $3,382 at the same point last year, per the Tax Foundation.
• Visits to IRS.gov were running 42% higher than the same time in 2025, likely reflecting heightened taxpayer interest in the new OBBBA provisions.
• The IRS had issued 36.5 million refunds as of late February 2026, compared to 36.9 million at the same point last year.

The refund numbers look strong on average, but the slight dip in processing volume is a signal worth watching. If that gap persists through March, it could indicate the staffing cuts are slowing the agency’s ability to keep pace with incoming filings.

Five steps you should take to protect your refund

You cannot control how many employees the IRS has, but you can control how you file and what you do afterward. These steps will help you avoid the most common delays.

Your refund protection checklist

• File electronically and choose direct deposit: The IRS has phased out paper refund checks under Executive Order 14247. If you do not provide bank account or direct deposit details, your refund could be frozen or significantly delayed. E-filing with direct deposit remains the fastest way to receive your refund, with most refunds arriving within 21 days.
• Double-check your eligibility for new OBBBA deductions: If you earned tips, worked overtime, financed an American-made car, or turned 65 in 2025, you may qualify for new above-the-line deductions on Schedule 1-A. These deductions have specific eligibility rules and income phaseouts. Claiming one you do not qualify for could trigger a review and push your refund back by weeks.
• Track your refund using IRS tools: The Where’s My Refund? tool updates 24 hours after the IRS receives an e-filed return and four weeks after receiving a paper return. You can also check through the IRS2Go mobile app or your IRS Individual Online Account.
• Use online IRS resources instead of calling: With phone support stretched thin, the IRS’s self-service tools are your best bet: The Interactive Tax Assistant can answer questions about filing requirements, deductions, and credits without a hold time.
• Update your W-4 now for 2026: If you are getting a significantly larger refund this year, it likely means you were over-withholding throughout 2025. Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator to adjust your W-4 so you keep more money in each paycheck going forward, rather than lending it to the government interest-free.

Some taxpayers face a higher risk of delays than others

Not every filer will experience problems. If you file electronically, claim the standard deduction, and provide direct deposit information, the IRS says your return should move through the system quickly. The people most at risk for delays are those whose returns require additional human review.

Filers most likely to see extended wait times

• Paper filers: Automated systems to convert paper returns to digital have not been fully implemented. Paper returns take significantly longer to process, and that gap is widening this year.
• Filers with errors or missing information: Returns that get flagged for errors, incomplete data, or potential fraud require manual review. With fewer agents available, those reviews will take longer.
• OBBBA deduction claimants: If your return includes a Schedule 1-A for the new tip, overtime, or auto loan deductions, there is a higher chance of processing scrutiny, especially in the early months of implementation.
• Identity theft victims: Resolution times for identity theft cases averaged more than 21 months during 2025. The Taxpayer Advocate has called these delays “unconscionable,” and staffing reductions are unlikely to improve them.
• Amended return filers: If you already filed without claiming an eligible OBBBA deduction and need to submit a Form 1040-X, expect your amended return to join a backlog that was already 2 million returns deep before this season started.

Bigger refunds do not necessarily mean better news

The average refund this season has climbed to approximately $3,742, up more than 10% from last year, according to IRS data compiled by the Tax Foundation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called 2026 potentially the largest refund season on record. That sounds like a win, but there is context you should understand.

A larger refund does not mean you paid less in taxes. It means you overpaid throughout the year, and the government is returning the excess. The OBBBA deductions boosting refunds this year were retroactive, but employers did not adjust withholding tables immediately after the law passed in mid-2025.

So, in the second half of 2025, many workers had too much taken from every paycheck under the old rules.

Related: The IRS Says Tax Refunds are Up 10%

The real financial benefit for most people will not come from this year’s refund. It will come from updated withholding in 2026 that puts more money in your paycheck each period, instead of making you wait until next spring to get it back.

Review your W-4 after you receive your refund so you are not giving the government another interest-free loan for 12 months.

The Taxpayer Advocate’s warning you need to hear

Erin M. Collins, the National Taxpayer Advocate, has been direct about the risks facing taxpayers this season. In her 2025 Annual Report to Congress, she noted that the 2025 filing season went well in part because the IRS had its largest workforce in many years and faced no major tax law changes. Entering 2026, she wrote, the landscape is markedly different.

Collins acknowledged that most taxpayers who file electronically with direct deposit and whose returns are not stopped by processing filters will have a smooth experience. But the true test of the filing season, she wrote, will be defined by how well the IRS assists the millions of taxpayers who encounter problems.

If your return is straightforward, you are likely fine. If something goes wrong, you need a question answered, or your return gets flagged, this is the year where patience and preparation matter more than ever.