Crude oil has pulled back sharply from its recent spike above $119 a barrel, with WTI settling around $87 and Brent near $92 amid extreme day-to-day volatility. Gold is hovering near $5,200 an ounce, up more than $2,200 from a year ago.

Asian stock markets staged a strong relief rally after days of heavy selling, with South Korea’s Kospi surging over 5% and Japan’s Nikkei climbing nearly 3%.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, now in its second week, has upended global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and sent shockwaves through every asset class. Your portfolio is almost certainly feeling the impact.

But before you start moving money to the sidelines, J.P. Morgan has a direct message for investors: do not let the headlines dictate your financial decisions.

The firm’s personal investing team published fresh guidance urging clients to focus on long-term fundamentals rather than reacting to short-term geopolitical shocks. Their core argument is backed by decades of data, and it is worth understanding before you make any moves.

J.P. Morgan says geopolitical selloffs are usually short-lived

J.P. Morgan’s investment team is not making any changes to its managed portfolios at this time. Scott Gardner, investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing, framed the situation carefully: “What follows in Iran could depend on what the regime does next, given the loss of most of its senior leadership.”

Gardner added that the White House has stated it has no interest in a prolonged conflict. But he cautioned that if Iran focuses strikes on oil infrastructure, the oil price spike could evolve into longer-term inflationary pressures.

The historical pattern is clear

J.P. Morgan’s own analysis of geopolitical and economic shocks since 1990 found that a portfolio of 60% equities and 40% government bonds has outperformed cash more than 70% of the time over a one-year period following a market shock. Over three-year periods, that balanced portfolio has always outperformed cash.

LPL Research found a similar pattern across conflicts since World War II. The S&P 500 has experienced an average decline of roughly 5% following geopolitical shocks. Markets typically bottom within about three weeks and recover within one to two months.

Oil, gold, and the inflation wildcard

The immediate market impact of the Middle East escalation is concentrated in two areas: 

• Energy prices 
• Safe-haven assets.

Oil prices are spiking fast

Brent crude surged past $90 a barrel in early March for the first time in nearly two years, according to Bloomberg. By March 9, Brent briefly touched $119.50 before pulling back. WTI crude settled around $94.77 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has been effectively shut down by Iranian threats against tanker traffic.

Related: As oil prices soar, so will your plane ticket

Goldman Sachs estimates that a sustained $10-per-barrel rise in oil would reduce 2026 U.S. GDP growth by roughly 10 basis points while increasing core CPI by less than 5 basis points. That is a modest impact in isolation, but the current spike is far larger than $10.

Gold continues its historic run

Gold was trading around $5,100 per ounce in early March 2026, up more than $2,200 from a year ago. J.P. Morgan’s own research expects gold to push toward $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by central bank buying projected at roughly 585 tonnes per quarter. The current spike above $5,000 reflects safe-haven demand accelerated by the conflict.

More Gold:

• Gold, silver surge after record drop flashes technical signal
• Silver and gold tumble triggers major reset for mining stocks
• J.P. Morgan revises gold price target for 2026

The inflation question

The Dallas Federal Reserve modeled the impact of Middle East oil disruptions on inflation and found that, even under a severe scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz temporarily closes, headline and core inflation effects on the U.S. economy would be comparatively modest over a six-month horizon.

That does not mean there is zero impact, but it suggests the Fed is unlikely to reverse course on its rate policy in response to a short-lived energy shock.

Five steps to protect your portfolio without panicking

J.P. Morgan’s guidance boils down to a simple principle: control what you can control. J.P. Morgan reported that, on average, 97.8% of its clients made no changes to their portfolios after studying seven events dating back to 2012.

Here is a practical framework for thinking through your own response:

• Check your asset allocation: If you were comfortable with your stock-to-bond ratio before the conflict, you probably should not change it now. Geopolitical shocks rarely alter the long-term case for staying diversified.
• Resist the cash temptation:  J.P. Morgan’s data shows that moving to cash after a market shock has historically underperformed a balanced 60/40 portfolio. Over the three-year windows following shocks since 1990, cash never beat the balanced approach.
• Review your energy exposure: If your portfolio is heavily concentrated in energy stocks, this spike may be a windfall. Consider whether your allocation still aligns with your risk tolerance, rather than chasing the rally higher.
• Watch the oil-to-inflation pipeline: Rising oil prices affect transportation costs, manufacturing inputs, and consumer prices. If you hold rate-sensitive assets such as long-duration bonds or highly leveraged real estate, monitor how inflationary pressures develop over the next 30 to 60 days.
• Keep your timeline front and center: Goldman Sachs found that following seven geopolitical episodes since 1950, the S&P 500 declined an average of 4% in the first week but recovered within the subsequent month. If you are investing for retirement in 10 or 20 years, a few weeks of turbulence is noise, not signal.

When staying the course might not be the right call

J.P. Morgan’s advice to stay invested is sound for most investors with a long time horizon. But it does not apply equally to everyone.

If you are within three to five years of a major withdrawal, like funding a child’s college tuition or entering retirement, sequence-of-returns risk is real. A 15% to 20% drawdown in the year before you need the money can permanently impair your financial plan, even if markets eventually recover.

Investors in that position should consider whether their equity exposure truly reflects the risk they can afford to take right now. That does not mean selling everything. It means reviewing whether you have enough in bonds, cash equivalents, or short-duration assets to cover your near-term needs without being forced to sell stocks at a loss.

For younger investors with decades ahead, the calculus is different. Staged buying during pullbacks, often called dollar-cost averaging, has historically rewarded patience. If the S&P 500 dips 5% to 10% from recent highs, adding to broad index positions has been the correct call in most past geopolitical episodes.

The bottom line for investors watching the Middle East

Geopolitical crises are frightening. The human cost is real, and the economic uncertainty is genuine. But the historical record is remarkably consistent: markets process these shocks faster than most investors expect.

J.P. Morgan is not telling you to ignore the news. They are telling you to separate what you can control from what you cannot. You cannot predict what Iran will do next. You cannot control oil prices. You can control your allocation, your time horizon, and your willingness to stick with a plan.

The data overwhelmingly support staying invested. Panicking has historically been the most expensive decision an investor can make during a crisis.

Related: JPMorgan has a surprising message about markets and war