JPMorgan Chase CEO issues dire warning on US economy

It’s not exactly a secret that we’re in the midst of strange economic times.

On paper, things might look peachy. The unemployment rate is low at 4.2%, and inflation rose just 0.1% on a monthly basis in May.

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On an annual basis, inflation was up to 2.4% last month, per the Consumer Price Index. That’s fairly close to the Fed’s optimal 2% target.

Related: Surprising inflation, China news sends S&P 500 stumbling

Despite a seemingly good economy, a lot of folks just aren’t thriving.

Job seekers are telling stories of spending months chasing interviews, only to come up empty. And while it would probably be unfair to say that inflation is raging, the fact that it’s remained stubbornly elevated is hurting many consumers.

A lot of people are being forced to cut back on nonessential spending in the wake of higher costs. That’s hurting small and large businesses alike.

JPMorgan Chase CEO issues a dire warning on the U.S. economy.

Image source: Alden/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Tariffs are a major concern

As part of his campaign, President Trump made it clear that he intended to impose tariffs on foreign trade partners.

In April, tariff announcements sent stocks plunging. And while the market rebounded following the 90-day pause on tariffs with China that went into effect in May, the future of that situation remains unknown.

Related: Veteran fund manager sends hard-nosed message on Fed interest rate policy

The fear, of course, is that tariffs will drive up the cost of consumer goods, straining folks who are already struggling to make ends meet.

Tariff policies could also lead to a major shortage of goods across a number of categories. If retailers can’t source products in a cost-effective manner, they may have no choice but to discontinue them.

That could lead to not just frustration among consumers, but also higher prices due to a gap between supply and demand.

JPMorgan Chase CEO issues dire economic warning

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is not someone who likes to mince words in the context of the broad economy. In the past, he’s been fairly quick to issue recession warnings when he’s deemed them necessary.

Now, Dimon has some discouraging words consumers need to know about.

Related: Morgan Stanley reveals mid-year recession, interest rate cut forecast

“You’re going to see real numbers, and I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,” Dimon was reported as stating during a Morgan Stanley conference earlier this week.

Dimon explained that while tariff policies have yet to impact economic data like inflation and unemployment numbers, that could soon change for the worse. And once it does, we could be in for a downturn.

Of course, Dimon acknowledged that it’s tough to predict exactly how tariffs will impact the economy.

“I am not trying to be negative,” he said. “You have all these really complex moving tectonic plates around trade, economics, geopolitics.”

Dimon also conceded that the impact of tariffs could end up being more mild than some people expect, stating that employment might only come down “a little bit.”

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But Dimon cautioned that tariffs are also likely to drive inflation upward, even if just a small notch. And at a time when consumers are already having a hard time covering their costs, that’s not the news anyone wants to hear. 

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