Major bank issues bold gold price target for 2026 | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Gold forecasts often capture attention, perhaps even more so these days, following gold’s incredible run.

When I began covering markets in 2020, gold was trading at around $1,800 per ounce. Since then, it has increased by 144%, including an eye-popping 66% rise in 2025.

The rally may not be over.

Swiss banking giant UBS just slapped a $5,000 price target on the shiny yellow metal for 2026, a number that’s tough to ignore.

Gold price returns by year (2020-2025):

2025: 53.9%
2024: 27.2%
2023: 13.1%
2022: -0.23%
2021: -3.5%
2020: 24.4%

In fact, UBS’s upside scenario suggests that gold could rise as high as $5,400 if U.S. political and economic risks escalate.

Also, UBS’s gold calls deserve attention because, for the most part, they’ve been directionally correct. In fact, its year-end 2024 gold price target was almost on the button.

The bank expects demand to build steadily, supported by low real yields, ongoing fiscal pressure, and an increasingly complex U.S. political backdrop.

Moreover, UBS expects prices to pull back after peaking; for the most part, Gold is likely to have another strong year in 2026.

UBS lifts gold outlook, calling for $5,000 by 2026 as macro risks fuel demand

Photo by Bloomberg on Getty Images

UBS thinks gold could reach $5,000 by 2026

UBS’s lofty price target for gold by Q3 2026 rests on a combination of macroeconomic forces.

More Experts

Foremost among them are low real yields along with an interest-rate environment still favoring non-yielding assets.

With the Fed expected to continue cutting rates this year, bonds will offer lower real returns, and gold will become increasingly competitive, even without a crisis.

UBS also talks about the growing fiscal stress in the U.S., as rising deficits and debt levels fuel long-term uncertainty.

For perspective, the U.S. national debt has surged to an all-time nominal high of nearly $38.4 trillion, up almost $2.23 trillion year-over-year (roughly $6.12 billion per day).

To complicate things further, net interest totaled nearly $981 billion over the prior 12 months, limiting future budget flexibility.

Throw in an unpredictable political backdrop linked to elections and policy shifts, and the role of shiny metals becomes even more strategic.

Recent price action supports that view, as the Chief Investment Office of UBS stated that,

What major banks see for gold in 2026

Goldman Sachs: Sees gold surging to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 in its base case scenario.
J.P. Morgan: Forecasts an average gold price of nearly $5,055 per ounce in Q4 2026.
Bank of America: Says gold has a likely path to $5,000 per ounce in 2026, along with an average-price outlook in the mid-$4,000s.
Morgan Stanley: Projects gold at nearly $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, with gains slowing down from 2025 but still trending higher.
HSBC: Says gold can reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026 under conducive macro conditions.

Gold’s momentum is being backed by real money

UBS says that gold prices have largely held up and grown due to broad-based demand.

For perspective, Gold has enjoyed a killer run this year, up nearly 66% year-to-date, and is trading near $4,362 an ounce on December 30.

That momentum continued to accelerate later in the year.

Despite the recent volatility, UBS states that gold remains on track for its strongest annual showing since 1979.

Moreover, in citing robust demand, UBS noted that World Gold Council data showed that physically backed gold ETFs recorded a record sixth consecutive monthly inflow in November, totaling $5.2 billion.

Assets under management reached a record $530 billion, with holdings increasing to 3,932 tonnes, driven by healthier inflows from Asia, as well as gains in North America and Europe.

Still, UBS stresses the risks.

A hawkish Federal Reserve, sluggish central-bank buying, or easing political tensions could cool demand.

Silver’s move shows how extreme the metals trade has become

Silver’s 2025 run has been even more dramatic.

Spot silver was trading near $74.49 an ounce on December 30 after rebounding from a pullback, still tracking 158% higher for the year.

Moreover, the metal briefly topped $83 last week, setting another record as tight supply met rising industrial demand from solar, electric vehicles, and electronics.

At its peak, silver’s market value came within touching distance of that of AI giant Nvidia.

Its incredible run attracted interest well beyond commodity circles. Elon Musk weighed in on X writing,