Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday changes the focus of what’s ahead for the U.S. economy in the last full week of June.

Because everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do, other than fire missiles on Israel. That’s what happened late Saturday.

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The three biggest questions a day later:

How will energy and stock markets react?
Does Iran still have enough enriched uranium to make and deploy a small nuclear weapon?
Will Iran move to block the ships from passing from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz into global shipping lanes?

Outside geopolitics, economic events coming up include Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and an important inflation report.

How much damage to Iran’s nuclear capacity achieved?

The nuclear question is on the table because U.S. officials weren’t sure Sunday if the attacks on facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan actually destroyed nuclear materials. Vice President J.D. Vance, in fact, suggested that Iran’s nuclear stock pile is still intact.

If that’s the case, it’s possible Iran could assemble a first-generation weapon. That would be as powerful as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, Robert Pape of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats told MSNBC’s Alex Witt on Sunday.

Not having this awful idea become reality depends on cooler heads prevailing. A key issue: If Iran is willing to discuss destroying or otherwise ceding control its nuclear development efforts. The Trump Administration is threatening more attacks if Iran rejects the demand.

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world’s crude oil passes — headed mostly to China, India and Asia — will send global oil prices surging and, ultimately, will boost gasoline prices in the United States and elsewhere. Stocks and bonds also would slump.

Customers shopping at a supermarket in New York in early March.

China News Service/Getty Images

Crude oil, stock futures move lower

Crude oil futures in New York opened up nearly $3 a barrel, then fell back quickly. At 7:30 p.m. EDT, crude was was up $2.12 to $75.99. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped to as high as $81.40, then fell back to $79.20 per barrel, up $2.19

Crude oil settled at $73.84 a barrel on Friday, up 34 cents. or 1.2%, from Thursday and up 21.5% so far in June.

AAA’s daily report on gasoline prices put the U.S. average at $3.218 a gallon, down slightly from Saturday’s $3.129.

Stock index futures were lower in early trading Sunday with S&P 500 futures off 28 points to 5,990. Futures based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down just 184 points to 42,333. Nasdaq-100 futures had fallen 137 points to 21,710.

Stocks overall were flat last week even as global tensions heated up. Some defense-oriented stocks slipped on Friday. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was off 2% to $137.30. Lockheed Martin (LMT) , however, was up 0.4% to $470.56.

Powell testimony ahead

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is always verbally battered by President Trump, will testify before the Congress twice this week.

The questions almost certainly focus on the Iran situation and its impact on the economy. He will also have to explain why the Fed is so stubborn about NOT cutting its key federal funds rate.

The Fed decided last week to leave its federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. One Fed governor, Christopher Waller, who voted in support of holding rates steady, thinks a rate cut could come in July. Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, thinks the Fed will have better information by September.

The federal funds rate mostly affects short-term rates. Bond yields influence rates on, say, home mortgages and auto loans. The 30-year mortgage rate was just under 7% on Friday.

Powell’s first appearance is before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

More Economic Analysis:

Also ahead this week

The most important economic report this coming week is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), due Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation rate.

The index for May is expected to show a 2.3% year-over-year index. The core index, stripping out food and energy, is expected to rise 2.6%, up slightly from April.

The inflation rate is still the lowest since March 2021, Barrons says.

A big week of housing data

Four reports come this week that will help clarify the condition of the housing market.

Existing homes sales for May, due Monday from the National Association of Realtors. Most estimates are around 4.1 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, up From April’s 4 million rate.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, due Tuesday from Standard & Poor’s.
New-home sales, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department.
Pending home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Home Builders.

Purchasing managers reports

S&P Global reports its flash purchasing manager index reports for June. These measure what manufacturing and services companies are actually buying.

Consumer confidence gauges

The Conference Board comes out with its monthly Consumer Confidence Index report for June Tuesday morning It may show a slight gain because the data were collected as stocks were rallying after April’s stock-market slump.
The University of Michigan offers its revised Consumer Sentiment Index report on Friday. Its early version suggested consumers were a touch less worried and cited the market rally.