Decades of disciplined saving may still prove insufficient for retirement due to one planning factor that often receives far too little attention.

The state chosen for retirement can determine whether savings last through later life or are depleted years earlier than expected.

A CareScout analysis measured how far seniors’ financial resources will stretch in every state, and the findings expose a sharp geographic divide.

Only nine states project enough combined income from Social Security, savings, and investments to fully cover a typical retiree’s lifetime expenses on essential needs.

In the remaining 41 states and Washington, D.C., seniors are projected to exhaust their financial resources before the end of a typical retirement.

CareScout finds a $109,000 retirement gap for the average American senior

The typical American turning 65 can expect to collect about $788,000 over the course of retirement from Social Security, savings, and investments combined.

Their expected spending on essentials like housing, groceries, transportation, and healthcare will total approximately $897,000 over that same period, CareScout reported.

Douglas Boneparth, a Certified Financial Planner, President and Founder of Bone Fide Wealth, and member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council, cautioned savers against fixating on a single retirement number in a CNBC report on a Schroders survey.

It’s hard to save for a future that feels abstract when the present feels urgent

That calculation produces a national shortfall of $109,000 across a retirement that stretches roughly 19 years for the average 65-year-old, the report found.

The deficit does not land evenly, and retirees in high-cost states face projected gaps reaching hundreds of thousands of dollars above that national figure.

New York retirees face the steepest projected shortfall in the country

New York seniors confront the widest retirement gap of any state at $471,000, driven by projected expenses exceeding $1.18 million, CareScout found.

Retirees in the state can expect to bring in about $712,000 over a typical retirement, leaving them with the largest projected deficit in the nation.

The District of Columbia and California follow closely behind, with projected shortfalls of $432,000 and $395,000 from persistently high living costs.

Alaska and New Mexico round out the five states with the steepest deficits, where housing, medical care, and everyday expenses put severe pressure on savings.

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Christine Healy, head of brand at CareScout and the report’s author, wrote that “where you live matters. States with lower costs give retirees more breathing room, making it easier to stay financially stable well into old age.”

High retirement income alone does not guarantee financial security in expensive states, and the CareScout analysis illustrates that clearly through Hawaii’s retirees.

Hawaii’s seniors hold the nation’s largest projected retirement income at $1.73 million, but lifetime expenses approaching $1.79 million consume nearly every dollar of it.

New York retirees face America’s largest retirement savings gap as soaring living costs outpace lifetime income, leaving a projected $471,000 shortfall.

Juliane Sonntag / Getty Images

Nine states where retirees’ savings are projected to last a full retirement

These states share a pattern of solid projected retirement income combined with living costs that do not consume every dollar that seniors bring in.

• Washington: $276,000 surplus, with projected income of nearly $1.3 million against expenses of just over $1 million
• New Hampshire: $240,000 surplus, backed by projected retirement income exceeding $1.24 million
• Colorado: $188,000 surplus
• Nebraska: $145,000 surplus
• Idaho: $112,000 surplus
• Minnesota, Utah, Maryland, and Montana also project a financial surplus for retirees in the analysis Source: CareScout’s Where seniors have the biggest expected financial cushions

Nebraska offers one of the clearest illustrations of that balance, with retirement expenses of about $824,000 and projected income comfortably above that threshold, CareScout noted.

Three states shifted into surplus territory since the firm’s prior analysis in 2025, including New Hampshire, Nebraska, and Idaho, driven by updated Census Bureau estimates.

Cost of living varies enough between states to swallow or preserve a nest egg

The CareScout findings reinforce a planning variable that receives less attention than savings rates or investment returns: spending environment during retirement.

Oklahoma and Mississippi rank as the most affordable states for retirees, with projected lifetime expenses coming in under $685,000, while Hawaii approaches $1.79 million.

That range means a person retiring with $800,000 saved could finish with money left in one state and face a deep deficit in another.

Lynn Toomey, founder of Her Retirement, noted that “the best retirement state depends on how income, health, housing and lifestyle actually work together in real life,” GO Banking Rates reported.

What the CareScout shortfall means for retirement location decision

Healy’s report urged pre-retirees to research care costs before committing to a location and to factor long-term care into retirement location decisions the same way they would factor in income taxes.

Americans now believe they need $1.46 million to retire comfortably, up $200,000 from a year earlier, Northwestern Mutual’s 2026 Planning & Progress Study found.

John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual, noted that higher retirement savings targets reflect persistent inflation, longer life expectancies, and uncertainty over Social Security, stressing the importance of a thoughtful, comprehensive financial plan.

The geographic divide is quantified, and CareScout has attached a dollar figure to it in every state across the country.

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