Overlooked tech stock delivers 45% earnings surprise

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) is perhaps best known for barcode scanners and label printers.

Its latest results tell a much bigger story.

The technology company delivered one of earnings season’s most dramatic surprises, reporting adjusted earnings of $6.35 per share, nearly 46% above Wall Street’s $4.36 forecast. Revenue reached $1.56 billion, exceeding expectations by roughly $60 million.

“These results demonstrate both the durability of demand for our solutions and our ability to convert this demand into profitable growth,” said Zebra CEO Bill Burns on the earnings call.

Investors reacted fast. Shares of Zebra soared more than 26%, sending the stock near its 52-week high and market value exceeding $17 billion.

For stockholders, the quarter is relevant for more than the headline beat.

Zebra is benefiting as companies spend heavily to automate warehouses, track inventory, and give ordinary workers smarter devices. There was enough demand that management upped its full-year projection, although shortages of memory components continue to limit the number of products the company can supply.

That produces a lot of unique investment setups.

Zebra’s demand seems to be stronger than what its forecast implies.

But following the stock’s rapid rise, buyers must decide if the company’s improving growth and profitability warrant a much higher price, particularly as supply constraints and rising component costs remain unresolved.

Zebra Technologies turned higher costs into higher profits

Zebra revenue rose 20.4% in the second quarter from a year ago, including acquisitions and currency effects. Organic revenue, which excludes such effects, climbed 9.2%.

Growth was broad-based and not dependent on any one product.

Connected Frontline grew about 26% on a reported basis, driven by mobile computers and the recently acquired Elo Touch company. Asset Visibility and Automation sales grew 11.4%, driven by demand for printing systems and machine vision technologies.

North America increased 9%, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America rose 13% and 15%, respectively. Europe, the Middle East, and Africa grew 7%, despite ongoing weakness in the Middle East.

Hospitals’ equipping of additional caregivers with enterprise-grade mobile devices made health care Zebra’s fastest-growing end market. Manufacturing also grew at double-digit rates on the back of demand from the electronics and pharmaceutical sectors.

Those statistics underscore why Zebra is so important, even beyond the scanners that customers see at grocery and retail checkouts.

The company’s technologies enable firms to track goods, inspect production lines, manage warehouse inventories, and provide workers with real-time information. The company says that more than 80% of the Fortune 500 use Zebra’s technology.

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Even more of a surprise was the profitability.

Adjusted gross margin increased 5.4 percentage points to 53.3%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 27.7%.

That improvement came from a one-off $73 million tariff recovery and will not be repeated to the same extent. But margins excluding the rebound still expanded by almost two percentage points, Zebra added.

Pricing also mitigated a $20 million increase in management memory expenses.

This information is crucial for investors, as component inflation sometimes forces hardware companies to make a choice between lower margins or higher pricing for customers. Zebra hiked prices in time to protect profitability without derailing demand.

The business now forecasts price adjustments to recoup some $90 million of its expected $120 million memory cost headwind, versus a prior forecast of $60 million.

Zebra’s strongest demand may still be trapped behind a bottleneck

Zebra boosted its full-year sales growth outlook to 14% to 16%, up three percentage points at the midpoint.

It now expects adjusted earnings of $20.75 to $21.25 per share and adjusted EBITDA margin between 23.5% and 24%. Free cash flow should reach at least $1 billion.

More AI:

The company predicts revenue growth of 17% to 20% in the third quarter, with adjusted earnings projected between $4.70 and $4.90 per share.

Those targets will likely still underestimate client demand.

Demand signs would support outcomes at the high end of Zebra’s guidance, Burns said. Management adjusted the outlook closer to the middle, saying memory component shortages could limit shipments.

The scarcity hits the mobile computers, wearables, and other gadgets Zebra offers to retailers, manufacturers, logistics organizations, and health care providers.

Management said it is working with 10 new suppliers and plans to qualify five to seven sources for each main type of memory. Executives admitted the climate remained difficult, but the company now has a better view on suppliers for the next 18 months.

This distinction is important.

Zebra has no trouble finding customers, so it’s trying to obtain enough parts to meet demand.

Those supply constraints may mean delayed rather than destroyed revenue, which could be beneficial for shareholders. It also brings risk: protracted shortages could shift purchases to later times, stifle growth, and force more price hikes.

Zebra’s surge leaves investors with one difficult question.

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Zebra’s quiet AI business gives investors another reason to care

Zebra’s earnings beat was more than a post-pandemic hardware comeback.

The company is marketing its scanners, mobile computers, radio-frequency identification goods, and machine-vision systems as the physical layer that connects artificial intelligence to labor on the front lines.

It’s a less sexy aspect of the AI boom than big language models or data-center processors.

It may also be easier to monetize for enterprises.

Retailers use Zebra technology to track inventory, operate self-checkout stations, and enhance fulfillment. A delivery business can provide drivers with gadgets to track items and optimize routes. A factory can use machine vision to find faults that human inspectors may not see.

The world’s warehouses are still in the early phases of automation, with approximately three-quarters of them, Burns said, giving Zebra a lengthy runway in a served industry it estimates at $35 billion.

The business also sees a pipeline of major transportation and logistics deployments coming up in 2027, notably in last-mile deliveries. Customers are interested in products that integrate mobile computing, RFID, and local AI processing.

What Zebra investors should watch next

  • Memory supply: Better availability could allow Zebra to ship more products and move results toward the top of its guidance.
  • Pricing: Further increases may protect margins but could eventually test customer demand.
  • Organic growth: Investors should separate underlying expansion from acquisitions and favorable currency movements.
  • Machine vision and RFID: Sustained adoption would broaden Zebra beyond its traditional printing and scanning businesses.
  • Margins: Third-quarter profitability is expected to decline as the tariff recovery disappears and memory costs increase.
  • Valuation: The post-earnings rally raised the price investors must pay for the company’s improving outlook.

Zebra has enough financial flexibility to keep investing.

During the first half, the company earned $361 million of free cash flow and closed the quarter with a 1.9-times debt-leverage ratio and $925 million of available credit. It also bought back $568 million of its stock and expects another $150 million in buybacks in the second half.

It’s not the balance sheet that matters; it’s the execution.

Zebra needs to keep locking down memory, pass the costs down without losing customers, and turn strong demand into shipping goods. The strong stock surge suggests investors will need such performance to persist.

Still, the quarter changed how investors should view the company.

Zebra is more than a mature barcode equipment maker. It’s becoming a key provider to enterprises automating warehouses, hospitals, manufacturing, and delivery networks.

The market paid attention after earnings.

The next test is whether Zebra can turn demand it can’t yet completely service into growth that investors can continue to witness.

Related: Zebra Tech Jumps on Strong Earnings and Outlook