Palantir has been one of the most debated stocks in the market for years. Right now, it is giving investors a new reason to have that debate all over again.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed at $130.49 on April 9, down 7.30% on the day. The stock is now down roughly 22% since the start of 2026 and approximately 38% below its 52-week high of around $207 set in November 2025. Trading volume came in at 90.8 million shares, about 82% above its three-month average.
What just happened with Palantir for the first time in a year
Palantir’s valuation recently fell below 100 times forward earnings estimates. That is something the stock has not done in about a year. At its peak, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeded 240 times.
That compression matters because it changes the conversation. A stock trading at 240x forward earnings is essentially priced for flawless execution forever. Below 100x, the bar is still extremely high. But it is at least a bar some growth investors are willing to clear.
Related: Morgan Stanley has a stark message for investors in Palantir stocks
The stock’s current forward P/E sits around 109 times, with a trailing P/E of approximately 200, according to Disruption Banking. That is still expensive by any conventional measure. But it is meaningfully cheaper than where Palantir has been.
What triggered the latest Palantir valuation drop
The immediate catalyst on April 9 was “Big Short” investor Michael Burry. He posted on X (the former Twitter) that Anthropic is “eating Palantir’s lunch,” before deleting the post, according to Benzinga. The post wiped roughly $23 billion from Palantir’s market value.
Burry’s argument rested on enterprise adoption data. He cited figures showing Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) surged from $9 billion to $30 billion in a matter of months, while Palantir took 20 years to reach $5 billion in revenue.
He also cited Ramp data showing Anthropic is capturing 73% of all new enterprise AI spending, according to Benzinga. Burry has held a short position in Palantir via long-dated put options since September 2025.
What the business actually looks like
The bearish sentiment stands in contrast to what Palantir’s financials show. Q4 2025 revenue reached $1.41 billion, up 70% year over year, marking 10 consecutive quarters of accelerating growth.
Customer count climbed 34%, and the company closed more than $4 billion in contract value during the quarter, a record.
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The balance sheet is clean. Palantir holds $7.2 billion in cash with no debt. Management has guided for U.S. commercial revenue above $3.144 billion in 2026, representing growth of at least 115%.
On the government side, the Pentagon classified its Maven Smart System as a Program of Record in March 2026, guaranteeing long-term budgetary support, as Disruption Banking reported.
Key Palantir metrics at a glance:
- Q4 2025 revenue: $1.41 billion, up 70% year over year
- Consecutive quarters of accelerating growth: 10
- Q4 contract value closed: $4 billion+ (record)
- Cash on hand: $7.2 billion; zero debt
- 2026 U.S. commercial revenue guidance: $3.144 billion+ (115%+ growth)
- Current forward P/E: Approximately 109x
- Stock decline since start of 2026: Approximately 22%
Palantir’s valuation recently fell below 100 times forward earnings estimates.
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The bull case and the bear case
The bull case is straightforward. Revenue growth is accelerating, the commercial business is expanding rapidly, and the balance sheet is strong. Grand View Research projects the AI platform market will grow 38% annually to reach $251 billion by 2033, a wave Palantir is well positioned to ride.
The bear case is also easy to understand. At 109 times forward earnings, expectations are still sky-high. If growth moderates or competition intensifies, the valuation has significant room to compress further. Burry’s core argument is that Palantir depends on external AI models rather than owning proprietary AI software, making its moat thinner than investors assume.
For long-term investors, Palantir looks more like a high-quality but high-risk proposition than a simple bargain. The business is clearly executing. But the stock price still reflects a great deal of optimism about years of continued execution at this pace.
Time to buy Palantir?
The valuation drop below 100x forward earnings is the first meaningful change in Palantir’s valuation story in about a year. That alone does not make it cheap. But it does change the risk-reward balance for investors who had previously ruled out the stock on valuation grounds alone.
Patient investors willing to tolerate volatility may find the current level more compelling than any point in the past year. Those looking for a safer entry may prefer to wait and see whether the business can keep delivering the kind of growth that justifies even this lower multiple.