Transcript:

Caroline WoodsJoining me now, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. Ryan. Thanks so much for being here, Caroline.

Ryan Detrick:Thanks for having me. Me.

Caroline WoodsSo, Ryan, stocks are lower today, but the S&P 500 hit a new all time high last week. How sustainable is this momentum heading into 2026?

Ryan DetrickWell again thanks for having me back. Thanks for having me. I guess I should say, for the first time in a while, there’s a lot of momentum. And listen, the S&P 500 at the time we’re doing this is up seven months in a row. We might be up in December, so that’s eight months in a row. So we know this is a fairly stretched big picture market. But I think what’s so encouraging as we look around the globe. It’s not just a US story right. There’s a lot of other countries that are participating. We’ve advanced the clean lines making new highs. Tech pulls back a little bit. So industrials and financials take the baton. The lifeblood of a bull market is passing the baton around. So eventually we’re going to have a down month or two. I mean that’s just how it works. But big picture I think there’s a lot of strength to this bull market and this bull market is really alive and well.

Caroline WoodsSo what is it that has you optimistic that this is a bull market that’s going to charge on?

Ryan DetrickYeah, there’s a couple of things, I guess the two that really stand out. We call these the dual tailwinds to a bull market. Earnings and profit margins. Are we just had a spectacular earnings season that wrapped up. And we’re looking at according to FactSet data like new highs and profit margins as well. So if you have those two dual tailwinds we can talk about those for about three years now on the Carson team. That tends to suggest you still have a bull market. And one more thing about this. You know, this bull market here in the US. It just turned three years old a couple months ago in October. Right. So it’s in its fourth year. We’re probably just where to put that. Going back the last 50 years. We found five other bull markets that made it to at least this point. And I say bull markets like a cruise ship. Once they get moving, they’re hard to slow down. They’re hard to turnaround. They’re hard to stop. And sure enough. Looking at those other bull markets. The average length was eight years. The shortest any of them was five years. This is just one way to put it. But I think this momentum is real. And this bull market probably has a few more tricks up its sleeve as we head into 2026.

Caroline WoodsDo you have a price target for 2026? How much further can stocks go from here?

Ryan DetrickNow we do with our 2026 outlook worse than the S&P 500. We go by percentages will gain between 12 and 15% in next year. In 2026. And you think about it, the average year at the average year gains about 9%. What’s fascinating, I think, for investors to really remember, especially this time of year. Only four times going back since 1950s at 75 years, has the S&P 500 gain between 8 and 10%. Okay, only four times. That’s about average. What’s that tell us? Well, bigger moves are more normal when you’re up. It’s up about 19% on average versus when you’re down down about 14. Now layer on one more time with this. We do not see recession again. We think things are going to be pretty good. Acceleration globally next year is a big theme of ours. In years you don’t see a recession. The S&P 500 is up at least double digits seven out of ten times. So again, yes, we’re looking at three spectacular years in a row. That doesn’t mean, though, that this fourth year can’t be solid. We probably don’t gain 20%. Well, you know what? You know, 12 to 15%, we think makes a lot of sense in 2026.

Caroline WoodsYeah. And still double digit returns. I guess the next question would be what role will big tech play in that 12 to 15% returns. Do you think we’ll see this rotation out of tech in the new year, or will it leave the gains?

Ryan DetrickLook Caroline. We think tech will still be part of the gains. Right. And what’s so fascinating about this year. Like there’s the Mag seven. We all know that the 493. Will you look at the mag seven. Like I can’t really talk too much individual equities, but only two of them are outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Right. It’s not all about tech. Again I kind of hinted a couple questions ago tech didn’t do as well in November and December. That’s okay because industrials financials kind of took on a lot of our big themes again in 2026 is we’ll call it Ride the Wave. Right. There’s a lot of momentum. There’s a lot of positive things that are coming out there. We think riding the wave of cyclicals makes a lot of sense. So that’s your industrials your financials and your technology. Let me be clear. We manage almost $7 billion on the car seat investor research team for our financial advisors. We are even weight technology. That doesn’t mean were wildly overweight doesn’t mean underweight. You need to have tech exposure. We still think in this in this bull market that we’re in. But again, you know, I think there’s going to be some better opportunities. And one of them, you know. Jumping around. I mean the globe I mean around the globe, we finally saw that you Europe’s up like 40% for the year. All right. Like almost 20% better than what the US do. And you got to go back like 19 or 20 years. The last time we saw something like that, the big question everybody has if you manage real money. Will that continue. Well? Will the rest of the world keep doing really strongly relative to us? We think it could we do it absolutely could. If you think about Europe. Last comment on this. What’s really in Europe financials, industrials materials. There’s not a lot of technology. There’s some but not a lot. So from a diversified portfolio point of view we’re overweight equities. We have a big chunk of US. We think having some developed international maybe a little bit or even a tad overweight developed international makes a lot of sense. That’s one way to play kind of the world without Mag seven by having that developed international in there.

Caroline WoodsBut if you think US markets are up 12 to 15% in 2026, do you think that Europe will actually outperform that?

Ryan DetrickYeah. We’ve had some internal discussions on this and we think there’s a chance. Right. You’re telling with, Jim Carrey. Right, Lloyd Christmas, you’re telling me there’s a chance. We do think there’s a chance of that now again, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t invest in us. There’s going to be pockets of us that do better. But just from that one way to put this, the German Dax. Right. Very important stock market. German Dax. Just earlier this year broke out above levels it was trading at back in 2007. You’re talking like 17, 18 years ago. That to us suggests again this breakout is real and this acceleration around the globe is real. So, you know, I wouldn’t be shocked if, some various countries in Europe did better than the United States next year. But again, that doesn’t mean the US won’t do well. And we still have a lot of US exposure will be very, very clear, but I think it’ll pay much like it did this year. It’ll pay next year to have that globally diversified portfolio. As other parts of the globe do really well next year also.

Caroline WoodsSo you’re saying there’s a chance it’s not lost on me? Also breaking out to new highs, although pulling back a bit today. Gold and silver. What does that tell you about investor sentiment heading into the new year?

Ryan DetrickWell, a great question there. I mean, just, you know, earlier today or just last Friday, you’re talking gold up 70% for the year and silver up like a hundred and 70% on the year. So without saying it’s not too obvious. That rubber band was extremely stretched. It’s not a surprise to us that snapping back today, maybe we see a little more of that. But big picture. What does it mean? You know, so many people have been wondering, is higher gold a bearish signal for the stock market is stronger silver as a bearish signal for a stock market. We say no right. We’ve actually. We were one of the very few places back in 2023. When the original bank crisis started. We added a little bit of gold to our portfolios. The models we run. And we said again, we were one of the few that said this. We might have a period of years where gold and the stock market go higher together. Because we’ve seen it before, right. There have been periods when 5 or 6 years in a row, we’re both go higher together. We’re looking at year three of both higher together. And then I look at things like industrial metals. You’ve got copper. Aluminum, steel. Obviously silver has some industrial components to it with the AI and and things like that. You know, those, to me, it’s hard to get bearish the global economy when you have think of something like copper breaking out, aluminum breaking out. Those are positive. The one commodity clearly that’s lagged this year crude oil. Right. Crude oil. I mean, it’s popping a little today, but at the same time, I think crude oil might play more catch up next year. So I don’t expect gold to be up another 70% next year. But we will say we still have some gold in our portfolios and having some of those commodities, metals and mining in, in a, in a, you know, well-diversified portfolio still makes sense. And last comment in bull markets you want to buy things that are having scary scary pullbacks. Well gold’s had multiple scary pullbacks the last couple years. They very well could be in the midst of another one. So kind of let let the prices come to you. And I so won’t miss some of this gold bull market that I don’t think is over yet. Or we still think there’s some, some juice left. You know, this might be an opportunity to add a little bit more on, on, on the cheap versus where it was a week ago. And everybody loved it.

Caroline WoodsBitcoin’s had a 30% pullback from the highs. Would you buy that?

Ryan DetrickNow we’re more a neutral on Bitcoin I mean I don’t technically have a we don’t really have a view on it. I will say it. Some of our more aggressive tactical short term models. We do have a little bit of Bitcoin in there. But big big picture. I think it’s very important to understand who the investor is when it comes to Bitcoin. Obviously someone younger. Yeah it makes sense that a little bit more Bitcoin, someone a little older maybe not. Because like you said it can go down 30% and go down 20% in a weekend. I will just say plain and simple from, you know, the Bitcoin risk on risk off scenario. Obviously Bitcoin’s actually getting there today right. Take the bitcoin take it here today markets down. So we start to see a little bit more strength out of Bitcoin. That’s just another probably signal that you know the the bulls are back in control. But but when it comes to Bitcoin we’re not huge bitcoin bulls I guess I’d say we’ve been more in the commodity space, which obviously has been actually better this year.

Caroline WoodsOkay. So finally as we wrap up, if someone’s been on the sidelines this year, maybe Liberation Day scared them. Maybe they didn’t expect that to be the bottom. What’s your message to them as we head into the new year? What do they do now?

Ryan DetrickNo. Great point. So I think, you know, as we think about 2026, just know that every single year is going to have scary headlines. Every single year is going to have volatility. You know, one of the things obviously with Liberation Day down 10% in two days, we talked about it at the time back in March. And April. Even some of the best years ever have had big down days. It was a day, I think it was August of 97, down 6% in one day and 97 somewhere 97 and then still gained 30% on the year. So again, plans are useless, but planning is everything. President Eisenhower, for investors out there, plan for volatility, plan for weakness. Another cliche one I like to use is. The stock market. The only place where things go on sale and everyone runs out of their store screaming, right. So there’s going to be a sale at some point. Things are going to pull back. Do not use it as an opportunity to panic. Use an opportunity to, follow your investment plan. And, again, likely suggesting this bull market has a good deal. I know it sometimes makes people angry when I say this, but. It probably has a good deal of life left to it, especially last comment on this when you consider we have a, inflation that’s kind of, you know, a little hot but not wildly hot. You have a dovish fed, you have a global economies that are starting to re accelerate being led by earnings and corporate profits. The last 22 times the fed cut interest rates near an all time high. The stock market was higher a year later 22 times. The fed just cut interest rates a couple of weeks ago near all time highs. The old saying don’t fight the fed. That’s something I think investors need to remember when we have the inevitable 5 to 10, maybe even 15% peak to trough correction at some point during 2026. The drivers that got us here are still in play in our opinion.

Caroline WoodsOkay, so just finally for those investors, if they are on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines and wait for the pullback or get in now?

Ryan DetrickNo, this is. All this is a great question there. I always like to say dollar cost average that we don’t get to too cute with it. You know maybe every six weeks or so. But a third a third or third in because everybody if you go in now then you have the pullback. You get sick to your stomach or vice versa. But again do it if you are constructing a portfolio right now, have that globally diversified portfolio. Don’t just go all in on any particular sector like Mag sevens. What am I looks at obviously but look at some other areas. I mean who who in their right mind would have thought utilities the last couple of years have done as well as they’ve done? They’re not your grandfather’s utility anymore. So again, have a diversified portfolio, continue to use the pullbacks as an opportunity. And if you really have missed this whole thing and you have a bunch of cash in there, I like to say dollar cost average, maybe do a third or third or third every six weeks or so and then, you’ll be in the market by springtime or so when it, when it warms up, when it warms up out there. And I think you’ll still benefit from this bull market.

Caroline WoodsAll right. We’ll leave it there. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. Really appreciate your insights. Thanks so much.

Ryan DetrickThank you Caroline. Preciate it.