Top analyst drops eye-popping price target on Micron stock | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

A $500 price target almost always grabs attention, regardless of which analyst makes that call.

However, it carries a lot more weight when it comes from someone who has covered the stock for years, with a solid track record to back it up.

That’s the case with Kevin Cassidy of Rosenblatt Securities, who just took his price target on Micron (MU) stock to a whole new level.

The veteran analyst just lifted his price target on Micron from $300 to a Street-high $500 after the company posted a blowout fiscal Q1.

Considering the stock’s trading at around $277, the call equates to a whopping 80% upside.

For perspective, Cassidy isn’t new to covering Micron.

He issued 58 ratings on the stock, achieving an accuracy rate of approximately 72%, according to TipRanks, which rated him as a five-star analyst.

Moreover, the upgrade has less to do with chasing momentum and more to do with earnings strength, pricing, and a memory cycle that may be running hotter and longer than most investors expected.

Micron’s Q1 was a blowout result with a price tag

Micron’s fiscal Q1 results were a stunner, reminding investors of the mission-critical importance of memory cycles.

Revenues surged to $13.64 billion, up remarkably from the previous quarter and the prior-year period, while profitability jumped alongside it.

GAAP net income skyrocketed to $5.24 billion, while non-GAAP EPS came in at a superb $4.78, pointing to stronger pricing and improved mix.

Key Micron Q1 highlights:

Revenue: $13.64 billion (up substantially from $11.32 billion in the previous quarter and $8.71 billion year over year)
GAAP EPS: $4.60; Non-GAAP EPS: $4.78
Operating cash flow: $8.41 billion, more than doubling year over year
Margins: Grew meaningfully across every business unit
Capital returns: Micron maintained its quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in cash durability. The dividend yield is still at a meager 0.2%.

Micron’s management remained upbeat over what was another robust quarterly showing. Leadership stated that demand continues to outstrip supply, primarily in AI-driven memory, while performance is likely to stay healthy through fiscal 2026.

However, there is a downside to the cost of keeping up.

Micron is ramping up its investment, Reuters reported, with capital spending expected to increase to nearly $20 billion in fiscal 2026, in hopes of adding advanced-node and high-bandwidth memory capacity.

That’s apparently unavoidable at this point, raising execution risk while limiting near-term free-cash-flow upside potential.

The math behind a $500 Micron call

Cassidy believes that Micron’s Q1 results and outlook for February are significantly ahead of market expectations, spearheaded by higher DRAM and NAND pricing.

Collectively, these trends prompted Micron to raise its guidance to a record 68% non-GAAP gross margin, a level that will be tough to match in the upcoming quarters.

Looking beyond Q2, he expects memory demand to track ahead of supply through 2027, backing pricing and margins.

However, long-term supply agreements are likely to cap price gains at some point, which leads to sluggish revenue and margin growth after 2027.

Even with the sluggishness layered in, Cassidy estimates Micron’s earnings to be about $36 per share in fiscal 2027.

Micron earnings snapshot: last four quarters

FQ1 2026 (Nov. 2025): EPS of $4.78, a $0.82 beat, on $13.64 billion in revenue, year-over-year growth of nearly 57%, with revenue beating estimates by about $761 million.
FQ4 2025 (Aug. 2025): EPS came in at $3.03, beating expectations by $0.17, while revenue rose to $11.32 billion, up 46% year over year.
FQ3 2025 (May 2025): EPS of $1.91, a $0.32 beat, supported by $9.30 billion in revenue and 36.6% year-over-year growth.
FQ2 2025 (Feb 2025): EPS reached $1.56, beating by $0.14, with revenue of $8.05 billion, up 38% from a year earlier.

The memory market is tight

The memory market heading into 2026 feels more like a “get in line” situation.

Micron’s CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, warned that DRAM and NAND shortages are likely to persist through 2026, with the massive AI data-center buildouts soaking up supply.

A big part of that is high-bandwidth memory being a capacity hog.

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Micron says HBM could potentially consume nearly three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM products, compelling manufacturers to make tough choices about what they manufacture, reported Astute Group.

Mehrotra has attributed today’s tight conditions to a combination of forces acting simultaneously.

The first involves customers building AI infrastructure on multi-year timelines, and an industry that can’t just add new capacity overnight.

“We are making progress with customers in our discussions for multiyear contracts with specific commitments,” Mehrotra added.

Independent research is also pointing in the same direction.

IDC expects 2026 DRAM and NAND supply growth to track behind historical norms, at nearly 16% and 17% year over year, while TrendForce also expects DDR5 contract prices to jump through 2026 as server demand remains healthy.