It’s been less than a week since President Trump announced a deal to buy Russian diesel fuel to bring down diesel prices.
The effect on energy markets? Small declines over the past weekend. But that’s because the deal is relatively small, compared with U.S. and global diesel consumption.
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This week, in fact, diesel prices both in retail and, especially, futures markets were rising again.
Diesel settled at $4.9274 a gallon in futures trading in New York on Oct. 14, down slightly on the day. But that followed a 4.5% jump the day before.
Diesel still solidly above $6 a gallon — $8 in California
Retail diesel was quoted at an average $6.2997 per gallon in the United States on Oct. 14 by AAA Fuel Prices, up about 2 cents from the day before and also on Oct. 9 and up 76.7% for the year.
Prices vary around the United States, AAA data shows, ranging from $8.413 a gallon in high-cost California (and $8.80 a gallon in San Francisco) to $5.77 a gallon in Georgia.
The U.S. average diesel price has jumped 76.7% in 2026, AAA data shows, compared with “only” 52.6% for retail gasoline.
That means fueling a diesel-powered truck with a 150-gallon tank has risen from an average $533.40 at the beginning of the year to about $933.45 on average — and $1,252 in California.
The U.S. national average price of gasoline was $4.33 a gallon on Oct. 14, AAA data show. GasBuddy puts the average price at about $4.32 a gallon.
Global oil prices moved higher as well. Light sweet crude settled at $95.09 a barrel, up 1%. Brent, the global benchmark, was at $106.06 a barrel, up 0.4%.
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Diesel really is necessary
Diesel is a key fuel used by trucks, railroads, automobiles, and a host of agricultural and industrial machinery.
And diesel supplies globally are expected to remain tight — and prices high — well into 2027, the International Energy Agency said in an Oct. 14 report. The Paris-based IEA provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the global energy sector.
Gasoline prices also will be pressured, as well, the IEA said.
Ships at anchor near the Strait of Hormuz.
How the Russia diesel deal works
Under the terms of Trump’s deal, according to a Truth Social Post, Russia will supply 300,000 metric tons immediately to the global market. One metric ton of diesel is equivalent to about 7.45 barrels, according to S&P Global Platts.
The Kremlin, then, has agreed to initially export about 2.24 million barrels, or 74,500 barrels per day if spread out over an entire month.
The United States consumes some 3.8 million barrels of diesel per day. Globally, about 28 million barrels of diesel is consumed per day.
So, the incremental supply coming from the deal is small at best. The situation is worrisome enough that the White House used a 1950 law, the Defense Production Act, to order a boost in production at a small Texas refinery.
And a big question is whether Russia can actually deliver the diesel. Its oil industry has been strapped all year because of the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone attacks. The situation was so bad during the summer that there were gas lines in major cities.
Trump claimed over the weekend that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a ceasefire, but the fighting still raged on.
Moreover, the fighting continued this week throughout the Persian Gulf region.
Related: Chevron CEO says key decision on diesel and fuel export is unwise
