• June monthly GDP +0.3% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• Prior +0.1%; revised to 0.0%
• June services output +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.1%
• June industrial output -0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.7%
• June manufacturing output -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected
• Prior +0.1%; revised to -0.2%
• June construction output -0.1% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Prior -0.8%

The monthly estimate for June comes in at a solid beat, amid a stronger performance from the services sector. The unexpected jump also comes amid a downwards revision to the May figures though. And all of this feeds into the bigger picture, with UK Q2 GDP estimated to grow by 0.4% on the quarter.

At the balance, production and construction showed benign growth conditions in June. So, all of the weight is carried by services output on the month.

Drilling down to the services sector, the largest positive contribution in June came from professional, scientific and technical activities (+1.0%). This was driven by growths in scientific research and development (+2.8%), reaching its highest level since January 2025, as well as in legal activities (+1.8%).

Meanwhile, consumer-facing services also saw output up by 0.4% on the month with retail trade being a notable contributor from an industry level. ONS even points out that this industry was also the largest positive contribution from a single industry to services output (+0.05%), and second largest positive contribution to real GDP growth (+0.04%) in June. So, that’s a decently positive takeaway.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.