Main PageOctober 13, 2026

US CPI preview: 14 investment bank forecasters see energy lifting headline to 3.6%, core held near 0.2%

The headline jump is largely priced in, so the market reaction will hinge on core. A print at the top of the forecast range, around 0.24% or higher, would back the Fed officials warning that inflation is broadening and firm December hike pricing, lifting front-end yields and the dollar. A reading at the soft end, near 0.16% to 0.18%, would support New York Fed President Williams’ view that price pressures are shock-driven and could trim expectations for tightening beyond this year. For oil, the report is a reminder that crude is now feeding straight into US inflation through gasoline. Any renewed spike in prices from Gulf escalation would show up in next month’s headline and keep energy at the centre of the Fed debate.

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Earlier:

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Gasoline will do the heavy lifting in today’s US headline inflation, but the Fed’s next move depends on whether core stays as calm as Wall Street expects.

Summary:

  • US CPI for September is due Wednesday at 1230 GMT (0830 US Eastern)
  • The median forecast from 14 forecasters, compiled by The Wall Street Journal, sees headline CPI up around 0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, from 0.4% and 3.4% in August
  • Core is seen rising 0.22% m/m, down from 0.29%, with annual core at 2.4%
  • Core forecasts range from 0.16% at Deutsche Bank to 0.24% at Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Morgan Stanley
  • Forecasters are split almost evenly on whether annual core holds at 2.4% or edges up to 2.5%
  • The Fed’s Beige Book follows later on Wednesday, ahead of the October 27-28 policy meeting

US consumer prices are expected to post a sharp energy-driven rise in September, while underlying inflation is forecast to cool, according to a survey of Wall Street forecasters compiled by The Wall Street Journal ahead of Wednesday’s release at 1230 GMT (0830 US Eastern).

The median forecast across 14 forecasters points to a rise of around 0.6% in headline CPI for the month, up from 0.4% in August, lifting the annual rate to 3.6% from 3.4%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, are seen rising 0.22%, slower than August’s 0.29%, leaving the annual core rate at 2.4%.

The headline boost reflects gasoline. US pump prices averaged above $4.30 a gallon in September, a record for the month, as the war involving Iran keeps crude prices high. Headline forecasts are tightly grouped, with Morgan Stanley at the top on a monthly basis and JPMorgan slightly below the pack.

The core picture is less settled. Deutsche Bank has the softest call at 0.16%, with Citigroup and JPMorgan both at 0.18%, while Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Morgan Stanley sit at 0.24%. The difference matters for the annual rate: roughly half of forecasters, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Morgan Stanley, expect core to edge up to 2.5% year on year, while the rest, including Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan, see it holding at 2.4%.

Part of the expected cooling reflects a one-off. Barclays and Morgan Stanley have noted that an unusual jump in wireless phone service prices lifted August’s core reading by around 0.1 percentage point and should partly unwind.

The release lands as Fed officials debate whether inflation is broadening. On Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said inflation is proving enduring, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she is watching how widespread price pressures are. New York Fed President John Williams argued the economy is not overheating. A firm core print would strengthen the first camp. A soft one would support Williams’ view that the pressure stems from specific shocks.

There is also a measurement wrinkle. Core CPI has recently been running below core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, which stood near 3% in August, so a benign core CPI print may flatter the measure the Fed actually targets.

The Fed’s Beige Book follows later on Wednesday, ahead of the October 27-28 policy meeting, where markets currently expect the central bank to hold before a December hike.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.