Veteran analyst drops shocking Tesla target | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

It looks like a year best forgotten for Tesla (TSLA) stock and its patient investors.

The EV giant’s recent chapter reads more like a cautionary tale than an innovation saga.

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From its robotaxi dream turning messy, Europe cooling on its cars, and its CEO Elon Musk’s feud with Washington, things couldn’t have gotten any worse.

However, the latest gut punch from a major corner of the Street might be the hardest yet. If the call comes to fruition, the real drop might turn brutal.

A veteran analyst’s shocking call slashes Tesla’s outlook to $115 per share.

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Tesla’s bumpy year: robotaxis, feuds, and fading demand

Tesla’s recent stretch feels anything but a smooth ride.

What the bulls hoped to be an ambitious push into autonomous robotaxis morphed into a gauntlet of mixed reviews, regulatory roadblocks, and headline-grabbing political spats.

In a few short months, the EV behemoth has juggled field tests in Austin, an ongoing feud with President Donald Trump, and plummeting sales in Europe.

The much-talked-about robotaxi pilot launched in Austin on June 22.

Tesla Model Ys were seen cruising through a geofenced zone under the watchful eyes of safety monitors. Early videos showed relatively smooth $4.20 rides, sparking bullish chatter.

However, things went south quickly, as clips of wrong-way turns, sudden stops, and probes by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration promptly stole the spotlight.

Compounding those tech troubles is Musk’s public fallout with President Trump.

Once backers in a “first buddy” bromance, the relationship soured quickly when Musk blasted Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” as “insanity” and departed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

President Trump fired back on Truth Social, threatening to take away federal perks that underpin much of Tesla’s growth.

Government support in the form of subsidies has been massive for Tesla.

A $465 million DOE loan kick-started its Fremont factory in 2010. Moreover, the company has made an eye-catching $10 billion in regulatory-credit sales since 2019, nearly 30% of net income.

Remove those subsidies, and the fundamentals look a lot less ironclad.

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The tussle eventually led to Tesla stock tumbling 14% on June 5, erasing $150 billion in value.

Unsurprisingly, the feud has dragged on, with Musk calling to slash all subsidies. At the same time, Trump accused him of being one of the biggest beneficiaries of taxpayer dollars and even weighed deporting him to South Africa.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s European sales have hit a rough patch.

June registrations in the Nordics plunged over 60%, Sweden dropped 64.4%, and EU deliveries slid 40.5% in May. Chinese competitors like BYD are muscling in, as they continue chipping away at Tesla’s market share.

No wonder Tesla’s stock has been under major duress, tanking 21% year-to-date.

Big downgrade jolts Tesla stock

J.P. Morgan just hit Tesla stockholders with a major reality check that’s tough to pass up.

Analyst Ryan Brinkman sees Tesla stock dropping over 60% from its current price, with a new price target at just $115.

The steep fall signals real trouble for the EV giant.

After Musk left his chaotic stint in the Trump administration, many believed he could turn things around for Tesla.

However, the latest data says otherwise, with Brinkman’s channel checks showing demand hasn’t bounced back; in fact, it has gotten worse.

In the first quarter, Tesla deliveries dropped 13% year over year. Now, Q2 is shaping up even uglier.

Brinkman expects deliveries to tank 19% to about 360,000 units, significantly below Wall Street’s estimate of 392,000 and far off last year’s 444,000.

Historically, Tesla’s second-half growth has been mostly muted, coming in at just 9% on average over the past two years.

Additionally, a new Senate proposal could kill the $7,500 federal EV tax credit sooner than expected, adding to Tesla’s woes.

To make matters worse, Brinkman trimmed his Q2 EPS estimate to around 42 cents, down from 48 cents, and below the 45 cents consensus.

Also, his full-year forecast sits at $1.75, trailing the Street’s $1.87 call.

Hence, with Tesla stock firmly in the red, The Street’s average price target of $306 suddenly feels a long way off.

Brinkman isn’t buying the comeback story, warning investors that there will likely be a lot more pain ahead.