Veteran analysts drop shock call on Micron stock after historic run | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

Micron Technology (MU) is the definition of a “crowded winner.”

This kind of bullishness is rare. Targets cannot keep up. Instead, it looks like even bullish price targets cannot keep up; they’re chasing the tape.

Shares were recently changing hands for $382.89 (Feb. 6, 2026), off their $455.50 52-week high, but still sitting on an eye-popping run that took MU from $201.37 on Nov. 20, 2025, to $430.28 by Jan. 28, 2026, a 114% move in a little over two months.

How is Micron managing to do all of this? Pricing is where the most money can be made in the semiconductor cycle, which means Micron is sitting on a gold mine.

The current environment is framed as a global memory-chip shortage driven by AI infrastructure buildouts, Reuters reported. That shortage is now becoming acute, bleeding into consumer tech, including smartphones.

This issue is important, Reuters notes. That’s because memory is like a knife fight. As supply increases, prices decrease, destroying margins. This time, supply has had a difficult time keeping up, and demand (particularly for data centers) is taking parts away from “normal” devices.

And this episode is not simply a 2026 narrative. Micron is explicit about expanding capacity. It includes an approximately$24 billion investment over 10 years in Singapore, with wafer output targeted for the second half of 2028 and 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space.

That supply is long-dated, though. The market is reacting to what’s going on right now: tight memory, tight HBM, and consumers battling for space.

Micron’s historic run just triggered a new Wall Street reaction.

Photo by Bloomberg on Getty Images

The “surprise call”: Wall Street keeps moving the goalposts

Here’s the fascinating part for me.

After a run like MU’s, you’d expect analysts to get cautious. However, surprisingly, the market is leaning in further, intensifying its bullish views on the stock.

Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh raised his price target to $480 (from $390), according to MarketWatch, with commentary tied to a “desperate” memory market and sustained pricing tailwinds.
HSBC raised its target to $500 (from $350) while keeping a buy rating, Investing.com reported.
Barclays lifted its target to $450 (from $275) and reiterated overweight (with Wells Fargo also lifting to $410).
Piper Sandler hiked to $400 (from $275), arguing supply tightness supports pricing through 2026 and noting that calendar 2026 supply is “effectively sold out.”

There is one detail that stands out. Piper spoke about analyst predictions that fiscal year 2026 EPS would be around $33.56. If MU’s earnings power actually does get to that level, its value might still appear startlingly inexpensive. Despite the astronomical rise, this remains the case.

This is why Micron bulls keep demonstrating. The market isn’t just pricing a favorable quarter; it’s pricing a multi-quarter profit burst in a supply-constrained industry.

Micron’s fundamentals are backing up the story

Micron’s own numbers are lending the narrative credibility.

Micron made $13.64 billion in sales and $4.78 in non-GAAP EPS in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which concluded on Nov. 27, 2025. It also had $8.41 billion in operational cash flow.

Then came the advice that transformed the mood of the deal. Micron’s forecast for the second quarter said it would make $18.7 billion in sales and $8.42 in non-GAAP EPS. It also said its non-GAAP gross margin would be about 68%.

Management has also warned that tight supply circumstances would endure into 2026 and that it is looking for multiyear contracts with consumers.

Why Micron stock is wobbling anyway

After a move this extreme, fundamentals matter, even for an established business like Micron. But positioning often matters more.

Insider selling is part of the narrative. EVP Manish Bhatia sold 26,623 shares on Jan. 22 for more than $10.4 million as the stock was notching new highs.

In a recent trade, Micron EVP Sumit Sadana sold off stock on Feb. 2, according to Barron’s. A Form 4 filed with the SEC shows sales at weighted average prices in the $429-$431 range.

The options market for Micron is also active. One often-reported statistic is that more than 10,000 put options traded at the $390 strike price that would expire on May 15. This type of activity may show hedging after a huge run, but it can also put mechanical pressure on the stock if it goes down.

Technical analysts are also raising concerns, as BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky noted that Micron was 147% above its 200-day moving average, a level he deemed historically stretched.

What’s the financial setup, and what comes next?

Micron will deliver its next earnings report on March 19. The average EPS forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 are $32.10 and $42.38, respectively.

Going forward, two things are most important.

Micron needs to beat earnings estimates on March 19, and the pressure is mounting.
Demand versus “shortage spillover”: Appl (AAPL) is having trouble deciding how much to charge for its products because of a lack of smartphone memory. This makes it more likely that customer demand will drop. Micron is one of Apple’s biggest suppliers.

The strength of AI pricing is pushing Micron up right now. But when the stock begins to breathe again, the next move will require some basic strength to support it.