EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, the only highlight is the Swiss CPI which is expected to decline to 0.5% vs 0.6% prior on a year-over-year basis. The data is not going to change anything for the SNB as the central bank continues to reiterate its neutral stance and willingness to intervene in the FX market if necessary.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, we get the US NFP report and the US Jobless Claims figures, but the focus will of course be on the NFP. Initial Claims are expected at 218K vs 215K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1820K vs 1821K prior.

Jobless Claims have been pointing to a stable/improving labour market until the recent weeks when we started to see some minor easing. Keep in mind that Jobless Claims tend to increase in the first part of the summer due to seasonal factors.

The US NFP is expected to show 110K jobs added in June vs 172K in May, and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.5% vs 3.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior.

Data in line or worse than forecasts could trigger a pullback in the markets, with the US dollar likely falling across the board. Upside surprises, especially on the unemployment rate and wage growth side, might lead to some minor hawkish repricing. All in all, I expect the US CPI report to matter more as the Fed’s focus has shifted towards inflation.

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS

• 11:30 GMT/07:30 ET – ECB’s Escriva (neutral – voter)
• 11:45 GMT/07:45 ET – Fed’s Daly (neutral – non voter)
• 15:45 GMT/11:45 ET – BoE’s Mann (neutral – voter)
• 17:55 GMT/13:55 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.