Main PageOctober 15, 2026

What are the main events for today?

EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, the main highlight was the UK GDP data which came out higher than expected. Overall, it didn’t change much for the BoE other than strengthening further the case for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, which was already priced in anyway. Traders are expecting a total of four rate hikes by the end of 2027.

Looking ahead, we don’t have much on the agenda other that a couple of low-tier releases like the French final CPI and Eurozone industrial production. The data won’t change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.

As a reminder, the market is pricing in an 82% probability of a pause at the upcoming meeting and then a rate hike in December. By the end of 2027, there are three rate hikes priced in.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the US Jobless Claims figures. The PPI Y/Y is expected at 5.4% vs 5.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.6% vs 0.4% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 4.4% vs 4.6% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior.

The Fed’s focus has been on core monthly CPI, and even after the uptick to 0.3%, Fed members did not sound like they want to hike at the upcoming meeting, so I doubt the PPI would change much. The market is now pricing a 32% probability of a rate hike in October, up from 21% before the CPI release.

The US Retail Sales are expected at 0.3% vs 1.2% prior, while the Control Group M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 1.4% prior. Retail Sales is a very volatile and coincident indicator, so it rarely changes anything for the markets. There’s generally a spike, followed by a reversal. Today, the data is released alongside the PPI and Jobless Claims, so there will be something for everyone to suit the price action.

Initial Claims are expected at 200K vs 197K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1709K vs 1716K prior. The Jobless Claims data hasn’t been a big market-moving report because the data just continued to support the stable labour market view.

I feel like the markets are starting to look towards the slowdown in growth but there’s been very limited sign of that yet. So, a signficant deterioration in Jobless Claims could trigger notable moves in the markets on a potential “growth scare”, although one single release won’t be enough to set a trend.

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS

  • 06:45 GMT/02:45 ET – BoE’s Greene (hawkish – voter)
  • 08:45 GMT/04:45 ET – BoE’s Breeden (neutral – voter)
  • 09:00 GMT/05:00 ET – BoC’s Rogers (neutral – voter)
  • 20:30 GMT/16:30 ET – Fed’s Hammack (hawkish – voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.