Why MP Materials is becoming America’s most critical rare-earth stock | Official Website of Louis Velazquez, entrepreneur, finance guy and tech innovator

MP Materials stock jumped 8% on Nov. 19. This movement extended a week of gains as geopolitical maneuvering around rare earth minerals intensifies, while investors brace for Nvidia’s earnings in the background.

The market continues to debate whether AI represents a bubble or marks the start of a decade-long boom. Amid the chaos, rare-earth suppliers like MP Materials are staging their own rally, fueled by national security interests and mounting concerns about China’s grip on the global supply chain.

The stock, which is up 312% year to date, has been boosted by the company’s new three-party joint venture with the U.S Department of War (DoW) and Saudi Arabian mining giant Maaden.

The agreement coincides with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s arrival in Washington after a seven-year hiatus and will expand on the trade deals President Donald Trump negotiated during his visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2025, when he participated in the Riyadh Summit.

Under the deal, the partners will construct a major rare-earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, broadening Western access to materials essential for EV motors, missile systems, and more.

The deal signals how rare earths are being strategically prioritized at the highest diplomatic levels.

MP Material’s stock has risen 300% year to date.

Photo Credit&colon; Michael Tessler/MP Materials

Rare earths: the backbone of AI and the clean energy boom

While AI giants continue to dominate headlines and investor attention, a quieter rally is unfolding in the background.

Rare-earth suppliers such as MP Materials, along with a growing pack of under $10 rare-earth stocks including NioCorp, Nova Minerals, Ioneer, and Lynas Rare Earths, are powering higher as the world races to secure minerals that make the AI era possible.

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Rare earth minerals are the backbone of modern technology. This group of 17 elements is used to produce high-strength permanent magnets that power EV motors, wind turbines, autonomous drones, advanced fighter jets, precision robotics, data-center cooling systems, and next-generation chipmaking equipment like etching tools.

China currently controls 60-70% of the global rare earth mining market and approximately 90% of the mining capacity.

Although these rare-earth minerals are not exactly rare in nature, their mining is limited due to the high financial and environmental costs associated with them.

What is the U.S.-China rare earth controversy?

Last month, China extended its export controls on certain critical rare earth minerals, which are essential for defense and semiconductor production.

However, following a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea, the two leaders reached a negotiation.

President Trump agreed to reduce tariffs on China, and Jinping removed the threat of export controls, giving the U.S. more time to secure alternative supply routes.

However, a Wall Street Journal report claims that while rare earths would flow easily into the U.S., China has plans to implement a “validated end-user system” which will give it the authority to restrict materials for companies that have ties to the U.S. military.

MP Materials emerges as the West’s strategic bet

This new deal is not the first U.S. government partnership for the Nevada-based rare earths producer. In July 2025, the Department of Defense acquired a 15% stake in the company to ensure secure access to critical minerals.

Now with another strategic deal, the U.S. is expanding its refining capacity.

Analysts are also taking notice.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of MP Materials with a buy rating and a $77 price target, citing that the U.S. government will “unlock significant value” with this rare earth producer, according to TheFly.

JP Morgan also upgraded it to overweight from neutral, while lowering its price target to $74 from $75 following its Q3 earnings report on November 6. Analysts also noted that MP’s unique mine-to-magnet vertical integration position makes it the outside China leader, and its role in national security is underappreciated at current share levels, as noted by TheFly.

Last week, Deutsche Bank also upgraded MP to buy from hold, with a price increase to $71 from $68, citing that it is the only player in the West to establish a fully integrated rare earth company that the U.S. government also backs.