- Baker Hughes US oil rig count rises 1 to 460. Total rigs unchanged at 603
- US expected to remove 50% tariffs on some Canadian products as soon as today – report
- UMich final October final consumer sentiment 48.0 vs 46.3 expected
- Canada August retail sales +1.2% vs +1.3% expected
- US S&P Global flash October services PMI 57.9 vs 58.0 expected
Markets:
- Gold down $24 to $3999
- WTI crude oil up $4.01 to $103.47
- S&P 500 down 0.5%
- US 10-year yields up 4.6 bps to 5.00%
- AUD leads, CHF lags
There are heavy cross-currents working their way through markets at the moment. The latest one is the oil market spiking into the weekend, including brent hitting the highest since May at $117. There are growing signs that Trump will escalate versus Iran in an attempt to break the deadlock and shuffle the deck on terrible polls ahead of the midterms. In a rally just before the close he said they may do a “little Epic Fury” and that fits with some reports about a short-term bombing campaign on nuclear sites and some infrastructure. Markets will be closely watching what happens afte the close and then the focus will turn to potential retaliation from Iran.
The jump in oil prices lifted Treasury yields and weighed on gold but it wasn’t the only focus. The euro continues to be dragged down by protests in France and elsewhere. The market is sniffing out political change and the likelihood of more government spending in order to tamp down on unrest and preserve the status quo.
Meanwhile, the AI trade remains in flux with the market increasingly focused on where all the money will come from to finance it all. The answer appears to be via equity markets and no one is sure if they can sustain that kind of capital raising. Already, we’ve seen the bond market shudder so I’m skeptical. Meta fell another 1% after yesterday’s 7% decline as it readies itself to launch a new class of shares. Other losers were telco names on signs that Elon Musk will is moving Starlink to earth where he will install cell phone towers, or buy space on existing ones.
Have a great weekend.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
