• Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA hold call as 31 of 32 economists tip a hike
• Goldman lifts December Brent forecast to $105 on Middle East and Russia supply risks
• Tucker Carlson claims Trump weighing nuclear strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain
• Gold’s slide to one-year low: margin calls amplified a fall driven by Fed hike bets
• Election scenarios: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says buy midterm dip, sees S&P 500 at 8,000 after correction
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• Tanker hit by two projectiles off Saudi coast as Gulf incidents reach 10 in three days
• China private factory PMI at 52.0 beats forecasts, output growth fastest since April
• China’s central bank goes daily on 1.25% overnight repo, moving to Fed-style anchor
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7146 (vs. estimate at 6.6625)
• Oil slips as Iran says Qatar-brokered plan could reopen Hormuz in two days
• Japan’s Katayama says US-Japan FX statement ‘alive’, warns on disorderly yen moves
• Japan factory PMI slips to 53.3, a seven-month low, as cost pressures pick up
• Japan weighs ¥5,000 annual payment for low-income workers under new benefit plan
• JPMorgan joins hike call for RBA’s November meeting, sees tightening bias persisting
• Gold price analysis today: Is the sharp selloff creating a buying opportunity or another trap?
• Bank of America’s Hartnett says buy tech bonds as relative returns hit 30-year low
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• US clocks fall back: Wall Street opens an hour later for traders in Asia and Europe
• ICYMI – Ukrainian drones hit three Russian refineries in 72 hours, ending US-sought pause
• Australia’s AI investment ambitions hit by another data centre setback
• Australia’s factory PMI stuck at 49.6 as new orders drop at fastest pace since 2024
• Trump says US and Canada have ‘concept’ of a deal, two days before midterms
• China’s central bank, regulators to meet on stock support after record 12-week slide
• OPEC+ holds December targets steady for third month as Hormuz disruption persists
• China’s factory and services PMI gauges both drop below 50 as fourth quarter starts on a weak note
• Iran says two tankers hit mines in Hormuz as Tehran offers two-day reopening plan
• What protects Japan’s economy? And what does it mean for the yen?
• Bitcoin got spooked this Halloween. Is a monster rebound brewing or another crypto nightmare?

Summary:

• Oil fell, with Brent down around $2 a barrel, as Iran and Qatar held a third day of talks on a plan Tehran says could reopen Hormuz within two days if the US meets its conditions
• Attacks on shipping continued, including a tanker hit by two projectiles in the northern Gulf off Saudi Arabia, with at least 10 incidents reported across the region since October 31
• Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90, citing high disruption risk from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts
• Chinese stocks rallied after reports that regulators will meet to discuss market support tools, and as the central bank began daily overnight operations at 1.25%
• The yen weakened despite Finance Minister Katayama’s warnings against disorderly moves; the Canadian and New Zealand dollars also lost ground, while other major currencies were range-bound
• The South Korean Kospi led regional gains, up 2.8%, ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, where a hike is widely expected

Oil and the Gulf

Oil prices fell in Asian trade, with Brent down around $2 a barrel, as attention stayed on talks in Doha and whether they make enough progress to persuade President Donald Trump to hold off on renewed strikes on Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Qatari mediators had persuaded Tehran to shorten its plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to two days: on day one the US would implement a set of measures, and on day two shipping would be restored. Iran’s conditions include sanctions relief, restored oil waivers, a reduced US military presence and recognition of new shipping routes. Washington has not responded publicly, and Trump said he was in no hurry.

The market is likely to keep pricing some prospect of peace while negotiations continue. However, the wide gap between Washington and Tehran, along with continuing attacks on shipping, may limit how deep and durable any relief-driven sell-off proves to be.

The security picture at sea deteriorated further. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that a tanker was struck by two unknown projectiles 72 nautical miles east of Ras al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, far from Hormuz. All crew were accounted for. Maritime security reports point to at least 10 incidents across the Gulf, Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman since October 31. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed to have hit two crude tankers on an unauthorised route, a vessel was reported possibly ablaze off Oman, and satellite imagery showed a leaking tanker trailing oil toward Oman’s coast.

Supply risks were also flagged beyond the Gulf. Ukraine resumed drone attacks on Russian refineries over the weekend, and Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, building a 1 million barrel per day disruption allowance into its 2027 base case. OPEC+ kept December output targets unchanged.

China

Chinese stocks rallied strongly. Reports that the People’s Bank of China will meet the financial and securities regulators and major banks on Monday to study improving a relending programme for share buybacks lifted sentiment after the CSI 300’s worst month in more than a decade. At the midday break, the Shanghai Composite was up 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component 2.39% and the ChiNext 3.28%.

The PBOC also began daily overnight reverse repo operations at a fixed 1.25%, below the 1.4% seven-day rate, in a step toward making the overnight rate its main policy anchor. Data released over the weekend and on Monday gave a mixed picture of China’s factories. The official NBS manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction at 49.3 in October from 50.1, missing forecasts, while the non-manufacturing index fell to 49.7. In contrast, the private RatingDog manufacturing PMI, which leans toward export-oriented firms, held at 52.0, beating expectations, as output grew at its fastest pace since April. However, manufacturers cut selling prices amid intense competition.

Japan

The yen lost ground even as Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said a joint currency statement with the US remained in effect and that Tokyo would act against disorderly moves. She declined to comment on specific levels. Japan’s manufacturing PMI eased to a seven-month low of 53.3 but remained in solid expansion, with input cost inflation picking up.

Australia

Markets price a high chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates on Tuesday, with 31 of 32 economists in a Reuters poll expecting a hike to 4.85%. Deutsche Bank is the lone major forecaster tipping a hold. Australia’s manufacturing PMI held at 49.6, in contraction for a second month.

FX

Apart from the weaker yen, the Canadian dollar lost ground after weekend comments from Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney on a prospective trade deal, which Trump said exists in “concept” but gave no details on. The New Zealand dollar also slipped. Other major currencies traded in narrow ranges.

Regional equities

• China Shanghai Composite: +1.2%
• Hong Kong Hang Seng: +0.6%
• Japan Nikkei: +0.4%
• South Korea Kospi: +2.8%
• South Korea Kosdaq: +1.6%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.