The first time I played Grand Theft Auto, I had to sneak it. The game carried an adult rating because of its violence, so I played whenever nobody was looking. (Sorry, mom!)
On Thursday, November 19, 2026, Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI, and this time the grown-ups are the ones sneaking off. Up to 1.5 million Americans could skip work that day, according to an estimate reported by the International Business Times. It puts the cost at roughly $1 billion in lost output.
Also read: GameStop makes surprising PS5 Pro pricing move before GTA 6 launch
Bosses lose the day, and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO), Rockstar’s parent company, collects the money. Preorders tracked by Sensor Tower have already brought in about $630 million, according to Insider Gaming.
Red Dead Redemption 2 set the bar GTA 6 has to clear
I have played every Grand Theft Auto since, and almost every other Rockstar game. The one I keep going back to is Red Dead Redemption 2, released on Friday, October 26, 2018.
Eight years later, its world still feels more alive than most newer games. Your horse learns to trust you, your beard grows out, and wolves hunt deer whether or not you are watching.
That is the bar GTA 6 has to clear when it returns players to a modern-day Vice City. Bloomberg’s Jason Schreier reported that it is almost certainly the most expensive video game ever made. Analysts he cited expect more than $3 billion in revenue in its first four months.
Fans are paying $99.99 for a game they haven’t played
Preorders opened on Thursday, June 25, 2026, with a $79.99 Standard Edition and a $99.99 Ultimate Edition, according to Quartz. By mid-August, about 89% of preorders were for the pricier edition, according to Sensor Tower figures reported by TechRadar.
Sensor Tower’s Karl Kontus said he had “never seen a 90% premium share before.” A $79.99 base price makes $99.99 feel like a small upgrade instead of a $100 purchase, a tactic retailers call price anchoring.
The premium mix appears to have held. Average revenue per preorder comes to roughly $98, based on Sensor Tower’s October count of 6.45 million copies.
Take-Two Chief Executive Strauss Zelnick has called the game “an incredible bargain as experiences go,” according to an earnings call transcript.
Sensor Tower estimates 89% of Grand Theft Auto VI preorders went to the $99.99 Ultimate Edition by mid-August, ahead of the November 19, 2026, launch.
The $1 billion sick day is shakier than it sounds
The paper trail behind the headline number is thin. The first IBT report tied it to José García Montalvo, an economics professor at Pompeu Fabra University. A second IBT report said the 1.5 million figure should not be attributed to him, and that no national study backs it.
The reported inputs do not add up, either. The first report cited about $70,000 in yearly output per worker. Spread over roughly 260 workdays, 1.5 million absences would cost closer to $400 million.
Some workers are saving paid leave for the launch, The Wall Street Journal reported. A planned day off is less a productivity shock than a holiday nobody printed on the calendar.
After Rockstar’s second delay, r/GTA6 users on Reddit joked they would be on Medicare by launch, GamesRadar reported. Thirteen years of waiting has turned a product release into something closer to a global event.
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Wall Street is still pricing Take-Two with caution
Take-Two’s market value sits near $38.9 billion, down about 19% over the past year, according to StockAnalysis. The shares trade closer to their 52-week low of $187.63 than their high of $265.94.
In August, Take-Two kept its full-year outlook at $8 billion to $8.2 billion in net bookings, the value of games and content sold. Analysts had expected $8.86 billion, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
The 29 analysts tracked by StockAnalysis rate Take-Two a Strong Buy, with an average 12-month target of $286.44. Reaching that target would lift Take-Two’s market value to about $53.6 billion, roughly $15 billion above today’s level.
Sony Group Corp. (SONY) has a stake too. About 74% of tracked preorders came on PlayStation 5, according to Insider Gaming, so most players will start the game on Sony’s console.
What comes next:
- The final earnings report before launch arrives Monday, November 9, 2026, according to StockAnalysis.
- Boxed copies reach stores on Thursday, November 12, 2026, for pre-loading, but they contain a download code rather than a disc, according to Variety.
- GTA 6 launches as a single-player game, with an online mode expected in 2027, Bloomberg reported. GTA V also launched without GTA Online in 2013, and today’s version still brings in an estimated $500 million a year.
- A PC version is expected in 2027, according to reports cited by Forbes.
Meanwhile, Forbes’ Paul Tassi wrote on Monday, October 19, 2026, that AI coding tools now let players rewrite games. He argued Rockstar may lose control of parts of GTA 6.
His example hit close to home. A new fan mod added a full revenge system to Red Dead Redemption 2, where characters remember where Arthur Morgan wounded them.
Mods kept GTA V alive for years, Tassi noted. Faster mods could stretch GTA 6’s life on PC, or give players for free what Rockstar would rather sell.
That long tail is where Take-Two makes its money. GTA V has sold more than 230 million units, the company said in August. Recurrent spending, the money players keep paying after launch, made up 84% of net bookings last quarter, according to its earnings release.
November 19 will show how many people call off work. The online launch in 2027 will show how long they stay, and that will decide what Take-Two is worth.
