A few years back, picking an airline was simple. You found the cheapest fare and booked it.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian has watched that habit fade. He believes it’s why Delta can keep growing profits, even when jet fuel gets expensive.
Wall Street is less convinced. Over the past two months, analysts have steadily lowered what they expect Delta (DAL) to earn this quarter.
That sets up a real test when the airline reports its September quarter results on Oct. 9, 2026.
Delta’s premium strategy, explained
For more than a decade, Delta has tried to sell an experience, not just a seat.
Every Delta jet has at least three classes of service, and many have four, Chief Marketing and Product Officer Ranjan Goswami said at TD Cowen’s Future of the Consumer Conference on June 3.
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Goswami said Delta earns a 15% unit revenue premium over the rest of the industry, a lead it has held “for well over a decade.”
Bastian, who joined Delta almost 30 years ago, described the shift on the airline’s second-quarter earnings call on July 10.
“If you ask someone why they picked a specific airline, at least 80% of the time it’s whoever had the lowest price. Today, if you ask a consumer why did they choose Delta, they’ll tell you, it’s because it’s Delta.”
Premium cabins power Delta’s growth
Customer loyalty showed up clearly in Delta’s second quarter, according to the earnings call.
- Revenue soared to a record $17.7 billion, up 14% from a year earlier.
- Premium and loyalty revenue each grew nearly 20%.
- Corporate sales rose more than 20% in core and coastal hubs, with Los Angeles and Boston closer to 30%.
- The American Express partnership is expected to pay Delta $9 billion this year, up 10%.
Delta barely added premium seats, which grew in the low single digits. Simultaneously, it cut Main Cabin seats by 2% to 3%, Chief Commercial Officer Joe Esposito said.
The math is simple. Delta is flying about the same number of seats but charging more for each one.
And more of its premium seats are going to travelers who paid for them, rather than to frequent flyers getting free upgrades.
Travelers are also booking directly. Goswami said Delta had 65 days this year with more than $100 million in cash sales through its app and website, compared with just 19 last year.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian expects premium sales to boost earnings.
Wall Street lowers its Delta forecast
Now look at what analysts expect for DAL stock in Q3 of 2026.
The average estimate from 19 analysts calls for third-quarter earnings of $1.88 per share, according to Yahoo Finance data. That’s up from $1.71 a year earlier.
But the consensus estimate has been sliding. Sixty days ago, it was $2.23, and just a week ago, it was $1.94.
Revenue forecasts point to $18.91 billion, a 13.4% gain, based on eight analysts.
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Delta’s guidance is higher on both counts. CFO Erik Snell told investors to expect earnings of $2 to $2.50 per share and revenue growth in the mid-teens.
In other words, Wall Street sits below the low end of what Delta promised during its Q2 earnings call.
The gap is wider for the full year. Delta affirmed earnings of $6.50 to $7.50 per share, while the consensus stands at $5.83.
Delta has matched or topped earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, beating by more than 11% twice.
Why Delta could beat Q3 estimates
Delta began raising fares in March to cover higher fuel costs. But by then, many summer trips were already paid for. Esposito said April flights were about 70% booked before the new prices kicked in.
So for much of the second quarter, Delta was flying passengers who had bought tickets at the old, lower prices.
The trend changes in the third quarter. Most of those tickets were bought after the fare increases, so Delta should collect the higher prices on far more of its seats.
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“Our exit rate on TRASM was significantly higher than our entry rate,” Esposito said. TRASM, or total revenue per available seat mile, measures how much Delta earns for each seat it flies one mile.
Put simply, Delta ended the quarter earning far more per seat than it did at the start.
Esposito added that cash sales improved “across the entire booking curve” in both premium and Main Cabin.
Delta is also slicing its premium cabins into Basic, Classic, and Extra fares this quarter, giving customers more choice and Delta more ways to sell an upgrade.
Fuel remains the biggest risk for Delta
Nothing about this is guaranteed.
Delta expects third-quarter fuel expense to run about 40% higher than last year. Bastian also said fuel was 50% higher than it was at the start of the year.
Delta’s refinery outage will also cost it 5 to 7 cents per gallon in the third quarter, Snell said.
Those pressures likely explain why analysts have grown cautious.
Still, Bastian made it clear where Delta is betting.
“We’re no longer competing on price as much as we’re competing on value and experience and service, and that’s where Delta wins,” he said.
If premium travelers keep paying up, Wall Street’s lower bar may prove easy to clear.
